Curbing pre-Eid movement will be crucial for Indonesia

Outlook

The ban on ‘mudik’ is the most stringent restriction imposed by President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo’s government in the fight against COVID-19.

The curbs on pre-Eid travel may not be enough to prevent the spread of the disease, but failure to enforce them could exacerbate the crisis. Authorities will be on especially high alert for anyone attempting to leave the capital, Jakarta, and other parts of Java that have been badly hit by the pandemic.

If there are signs of people flouting the ban, and infections and deaths continue to rise, the Jokowi administration will come under heavy criticism for deciding against a more comprehensive lockdown.

Impacts

• Some religious hardliners will speak out against the restrictions on Ramadan travel, portraying Jokowi as anti-Muslim.
• The government will come under pressure to announce further packages of fiscal stimulus to deal with the economic impact of the crisis.
• Indonesia will face criticism over its low level of COVID-19 testing, which has probably led to under-reporting of cases and fatalities.