Middle East displacement is a looming COVID-19 threat

Outlook

For up to 25 million people in the Middle East, the COVID-19 threat is compounded by the legacy of displacement. This deepens vulnerability, through poor medical facilities and health; lack of education or reliable information; inadequate water and sanitation; and, especially, inability to implement social distancing.

Even displaced people living outside camps are often in cramped conditions. Aid distribution itself can be a source of infection. Those relying on paid work are unlikely to have sick leave.

Although regional camps have not yet seen a major outbreak, it could be devastating. Rising cases in Yemen undermine theories that climate or demographics might protect the region’s poorest.

Impacts

• If overcrowded displaced communities become a reservoir of infection, they will likely face new prejudice and restrictions.
• Nationally imposed lockdowns are undermining refugees’ livelihoods, as many are prevented from travelling to work or jobs disappear.
• Aid provision will contract as global needs rise due to the pandemic, charities’ incomes fall short and governments cut spending.
• Systems to distribute food or compensate for losses, for instance in Lebanon, will often exclude non-citizens.