COVID-19 will worsen southern European ‘brain drain’

Outlook

Economic emigration will be greatly reduced over the coming months due to COVID-19 restrictions. However, when restrictions are lifted and the impact of the economic downturn in Europe becomes clearer, there will likely be a renewed surge of young, educated southern Europeans emigrating.

This will further reduce productivity and economic growth for Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece, and increase inequality between northern and southern Europe. While southern governments are trying to encourage skilled workers to return home through wage subsidies and tax incentives, it will be difficult to reverse emigration trends without tackling the reasons why people leave.

Impacts

• Southern populations will continue to decline and workforces will get older.
• Support for anti-emigration politics will become increasingly significant in southern Europe.
• There will be a larger than usual ‘brain gain’ for countries such as Ireland and Germany, as Brexit reduces UK immigration from the EU.