India’s border strife will intensify
India has increasingly fraught relations with neighbours over territorial disputes
Source: Oxford Analytica
Outlook
India-China border tensions appear to have escalated significantly in the last 24 hours. The Indian army reports that soldiers from both sides were killed in violent confrontations in Ladakh. It says Indian and Chinese officials are meeting to defuse the situation.
Delhi and Kathmandu appear willing to engage in dialogue to settle their border dispute, but there have been few signs of concerted efforts to arrange talks.
India-Pakistan enmity over Kashmir is utterly intractable; the two sides are nowhere close to holding dialogue and are perennially on the brink of open conflict.
Impacts
- Anti-militant raids or air strikes by India across the LoC would prompt retaliation by Pakistan.
- Any talks between Delhi and Kathmandu regarding their border row will be set back by India’s suspicion that China is instigating Nepal.
- In coming months, India and China may at least be able to reach agreement on the relatively uncontroversial middle sector of their border.
See also
- India-Nepal tensions are unlikely to abate quickly - Jul 3, 2020
- India and China will avoid war but grow further apart - Jun 23, 2020
- India and China will each try to manage public outrage - Jun 17, 2020
- Prospects for India to end-2020 - Jun 1, 2020
- More graphic analysis