Caribbean COVID-19 impacts could be deep and lasting

Outlook

Caribbean countries are looking towards reopening their economies, but in a region so reliant on tourism and remittances, the effects of the COVID-19 crisis could be profound and prolonged, even for places with few cases. This year’s challenges will be compounded by what is predicted to be an intense hurricane season.

Recessions are likely region-wide. Bodies such as the World Bank have offered assistance, but poor credit ratings will limit borrowing capacity and international aid could suffer as donor countries prioritise their own economic recoveries. With health systems already strained, any further waves of contagion could bring high death tolls.

Impacts

• COVID-19 must be brought under control in order to restart tourism, but tourism itself will increase contagion risks.
• Increased poverty could see racial discrimination increase, for example towards black people of Haitian descent in the Dominican Republic.
• Crime will probably worsen region-wide, with countries such as Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago likely to see already high murder rates rise.
• Overseas medical brigades will bring foreign currency into Cuba but will not make up for losses caused by the pandemic and US sanctions.