US-China cold war is plausible but not imminent

Outlook

A true ‘Cold War’ between China and the United States would be far costlier, more destructive and more dangerous than the rivalry between them today, and would also do more collateral damage.

Third countries, and constituencies within them, would be put under great pressure to choose sides. Inducements and threats would both be greater.

How to respond would become a permanently top-tier point of political conflict. The world would be less stable. The direct and indirect economic costs would potentially be ruinous. Policies that once seemed unthinkable could rapidly become reality.

Impacts

• China largely lacks a ‘missionary’ impulse; attempts to exports its ideology are defensive.
• Beijing believes that Washington actively tries to undermine China, but there is far more that Washington could do on this front.
• China’s nuclear capabilities lag the United States and its policies are more restrained; parity and reciprocation would be provocative.
• Despite talk of a ‘new space race’, space is nowhere near as high a priority as during the Cold War; AI might assume an analogous position.