Road deaths will fall further in eastern EU
Fatal accidents on roads in most eastern member states are above the EU-27 average, but the trend is downwards
Source: European Commission, 2019 road safety statistics; what is behind the figures?; Eurostat database; Oxford Analytica calculations
Outlook
Of the 13 EU member states with the highest road fatality rates, eight (including the six worst) are in the east. EU promotion of road safety has reduced total fatalities from more than 51,000 in 2001 to just over 29,500 in 2010, although the fall is decelerating and the goal of just under 15,000 by 2020 will be missed: fatalities across the EU-27 were estimated at around 22,800 in 2019.
There is more scope for road infrastructure improvement in the east than the west. The motorway segment is small but expanding, and in most countries its safety record is improving.
Impacts
- Road safety will make most strides in the east, where EU-11 road fatalities fell from 34.3% of the EU total in 2010 to 32.9% in 2018.
- EU funding of road building in the east will continue to reduce fatalities as better-engineered modern highways spread.
- However, smaller countries’ need for an extensive motorway network will have natural limits.