Post-lockdown Latin America faces widespread unrest

Outlook

As governments ease COVID-19 lockdown measures, pre-pandemic grievances will re-surface, in many cases worse than before. Soaring unemployment will increase poverty, exacerbating all the problems that come with it. Fiscal pressures will make state aid unsustainable, while financial arrangements with institutions such as the IMF may prompt unpopular policies such as new taxes and price subsidy reductions, inflaming public anger.

Against a backdrop of increased hardship and perceived failings in governments’ handling of the virus, frustrations over more specific issues surrounding human rights abuses, corruption claims and upcoming elections will trigger further localised bouts of unrest.

Impacts

• Protests and demonstrations will increase COVID-19 contagion risks, potentially further compounding the challenges facing communities.
• Allegations of police brutality in countries such as Colombia raise risks that deployments to manage unrest will provoke further violence.
• New governments in countries with elections will inherit myriad problems and will struggle to placate frustrated populations.