Concerns over rule of law will rise post-pandemic

Outlook

Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) scores and ranks countries based on how corrupt their public sector is perceived to be, while the World Justice Project (WJP) Rule of Law Index does so based on eight factors, including corruption, constraints on government powers, order and security, regulatory enforcement, and civil and criminal justice.

Although corruption investigations into Brazilian construction company Odebrecht across the region were welcomed, both the scope of corruption revealed and sluggish progress on prosecutions have undermined perceptions.

Developments such as Mexico’s Supreme Court vote to allow a referendum on prosecuting past presidents, or Argentina’s proposed judicial reform, will reinforce doubts over judicial independence.

Impacts

• Political interference in corruption cases in Brazil will mar early enthusiasm for the ‘Operation Car Wash’ probe.
• Anger over perceived over-stepping of legal limits in the imposition of lockdowns will drive post-pandemic protests.
• This will be particularly the case if, as seems likely, corruption allegations surrounding COVID-19 provisions themselves expand.
• Chile’s plebiscite on whether to draft a new constitution to address such issues may not be the last.