Middle East sanctions will mostly misfire

Outlook

An early stated item on the agenda of presumed next US president Joe Biden is to return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which entails sanctions lifting. However, the complexity of the regime -- and secondary targets’ caution -- will make this a difficult task.

The United States and the EU will both have less impetus to remove sanctions on Syria that are nearly as sweeping, given human rights justifications and the lack of any route towards political transition.

Sanctions will therefore remain an important foreign policy tool in the region, despite their failure to weaken enemy governments and mounting evidence that humanitarian exemptions are ineffective.

Impacts

• Criticism of unilateral and sectoral sanctions on Tehran and Damascus may mount as their contribution to COVID-19’s impact is documented.
• Multilateral arms embargoes and blacklisting of individual terrorists will still be widely seen as legitimate and effective.
• Elites will find new ways to evade broad-brush sectoral measures and use them to create solidarity in suffering, against external enemies.
• External actors unwilling to use military force will use financial sanctions as symbolic politics, ignoring evidence on outcomes.