Risks and Opportunities 2021: North America
President Biden will reverse some key Trump policies while tackling several more months of COVID-19 disruption
Source: US Census Bureau; COVID Tracking Project; Ipsos; Oxford Analytica Map styling: ‘Wargames’ by Daniel P. Huffman via Project Linework
Outlook
At home, President Joe Biden will concentrate on increasing the federal role in vaccine delivery and passing an aid package to deal with the economic impact of COVID-19. Abroad, he will work to restore confidence among traditional allies while leaving much of his predecessor’s approach to China in place and taking a tougher stance on Russia.
Effective vaccine distribution combined with a significant stimulus package should produce a sharp economic recovery in the second half of the year, by which time the mid-term congressional elections due in November 2022 will take on increasing significance for both the White House and Congress.
Impacts
- Biden will increase the role of the federal government in distributing vaccine supplies and ensuring their efficient use.
- Biden has rejoined the Paris climate agreement but may struggle to make progress with his clean energy agenda while tacking the pandemic.
- Pressing foreign policy issues that require attention will stretch the new administration’s capacity as it deals with challenges at home.
- Congress will reinforce Biden’s caution in making major changes to existing policy towards China, at least during 2021.