Emirati activism pays COVID-19 dividends in the Gulf

Outlook

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) saw a surge in cases driven by holidaymakers in early 2021, but an advanced vaccination campaign is likely to drive an ongoing decline. Instead, the country will focus on becoming a vaccine manufacturer, donor and distribution hub, capitalising on its geographical position and infrastructure.

Bahrain and Qatar will also swiftly vaccinate their small numbers of residents. Even though Saudi Arabia will prioritise inoculation, a much larger territory and population will slow the process, and in the longer term the hajj pilgrimage could be a source of new variants. Melting-pot Dubai faces similar travel risks.

Impacts

• Ramadan festivities this month could contribute to a surge in cases across the region, despite lockdown rules.
• Citizens will have vaccine priority; later, a securitised approach may put foreign workers under heavy coercive pressure to be inoculated.
• Cash-strapped Oman looks set to be the worst COVID-19 performer in the wealthy Gulf region, with risks to the tourism sector.
• Bureaucratic impediments and popular complaints in Kuwait hinder efforts to control the virus, but ultimately vaccination will proceed.