Ethiopia stands on the brink of a deepening crisis

Outlook

The outbreak of conflict in Tigray in November 2020 plunged Ethiopia into a major national crisis. Indeed, there are credible fears that the dramatic reports of fighting, atrocities and humanitarian suffering may well understate the seriousness of the situation.

Although Tigray has dominated the headlines, conflicts elsewhere in the country have also exploded, producing a level of violence not seen before in Ethiopia’s recent history, and leaving national authorities increasingly overstretched, militarily and politically.

Meanwhile, the country is hurtling towards June elections that may ratchet tensions further upwards. The conclusion of the polls may offer an opening for the government to ease tensions, but a failure to change course could instead entrench the national crisis.

Impacts

• The ruling Prosperity Party may comfortably win the upcoming polls, but boycotts and controversies will likely tarnish its legitimacy.
• Rising inter-ethnic conflict may aggravate internal tensions between regional branches of the ruling party, compromising policy coherence.
• Attempts to address instability through reforms to the ethno-political order may aggravate conflict absent genuine political dialogue.
• Interlinked dynamics across various conflicts could provoke a wider conflagration if political hostilities cannot be contained quickly.