‘Finishing line’ of pandemic will vary by country

Outlook

The most influential factor in COVID-19 mortality is age. Once the majority of the vulnerable populations, including those over the ages of 50-60, are immunised, hospitalisations and deaths plummet. This allows the relaxation of strict social distancing measures. The speed with which countries reach this point will vary, depending on the number of older and vulnerable people each country has, its healthcare capacity, ability to access vaccines, how fast it rolls them out and whom it prioritises for them.

Developed countries can complete vaccine campaigns faster than developing ones, even if they have larger older populations. Even slow starters like Japan could advance rapidly once roll-outs gather pace.

Impacts

• Even if countries vaccinate all their vulnerable and older cohorts, they will probably still see localised COVID-19 outbreaks.
• Countries with low health sector capacity would need to vaccinate a higher proportion of individuals.
• If COVID-19 variants lower the effectiveness of vaccines, they could derail current trajectories.
• COVID-19 looks set to become endemic in many countries, raising the chances that consequential new variants will arise.
• Endemicity in certain countries would mean travel restrictions stay in place for some time.