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Gaza fallout will shift Palestinian power balances

Tuesday, June 1, 2021

The indefinite postponement of planned elections then the May 2021 Gaza war have changed the balance of power

Infographic exploring key leaders of Palestinian political factions. The ruling Fatah party in the West Bank has splintered and lost credibility, from which Hamas and its allies in Gaza are hopeing to benefit.

Source: Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, Oxford Analytica, media reports

Outlook

Following the May 2021 Gaza conflict, the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank will struggle in vain to regain popular leadership of the Palestinian cause from Hamas, the Islamist movement that led the fighting.

Western interlocutors will redouble their insistence on dealing only with the PA, but ageing President Mahmoud Abbas has massively lost credibility. Key figures in his Fatah party will manoeuvre increasingly openly for the succession.

Pressure will rise from rivals to reschedule cancelled legislative and presidential elections due this year, but fear of a Hamas victory will prevent any such move.

Impacts

  • Military leaders in Hamas, notably Mohammed Deif, could gain increased influence on the movement’s policy decisions.
  • Hamas will play a more dominant role in ‘resistance’ to Israel in East Jerusalem and the West Bank, causing new tensions.
  • Fatah Secretary-General Jibril Rajoub may use outreach to Hamas to advance his position in the succession struggle.

See also