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Many developing nations risk missing climate targets

Thursday, June 17, 2021

The IEA says that energy spending needs to more than double, and to surge in developing nations, to meet climate goals

Huge investments in energy systems are needed to meet climate-change targets by 2050 -- especially in developing countries

Source: IAE Roadmap to Net Zero, May 2021, Financing Clean Energy Transitions in EMDEs, IEA report, June 2021, Global Trade Alert, June 2021, Oxford Analytica

Outlook

The IEA net-zero roadmap estimates that annual energy investment must rise from USD2tn to USD5tn by 2030 to reduce emissions to net zero by 2050. In developing nations (EMDCs) excluding China, annual clean energy spending must rise sevenfold.

The G7 commitment of USD100bn annually for clean energy in developing countries fills little of this gap. A transformation of global cooperation is needed to match developing world savings with EMDC needs. The latter will rise as climate change takes a toll. Hopes of new initiatives will be high at November’s COP26 meeting in Glasgow. Without more investment, global emissions will not reach net zero by 2070, let alone 2050, and global growth will suffer.

Impacts

  • Vaccine inequity is hitting the global rebound and, without more cooperation, energy spending inequity will curb efforts to reach net zero.
  • Spending on energy efficiency tech and renewables can help EMDCs leapfrog to clean power and wider energy access; securing funds is key.
  • Tropical nations will suffer climate-induced farming disruption but some could export renewable energy to proximate developed markets.
  • India’s energy minister wants high-income states to target carbon negative goals as EMDCs need longer to transition, but this is unlikely.

See also