France will seek to regain influence in Africa

Outlook

Since decolonisation in 1960, France has sought to maintain influence in its former colonies. However France’s economic presence has significantly declined since independence.

The rise of China is only part of the story, as its trade share in most former French colonies has only grown recently. Instead, the trend began shortly after independence and stems in part from African leaders diversifying their international partners to maximise their political and economic autonomy. Also, with some important exceptions, the French private sector has lost its appetite for investments in former colonies, preferring more lucrative markets elsewhere such as Nigeria or South Africa.

Impacts

• The French government will ramp up efforts to encourage French investments in former colonies.
• Despite its relative decline in economic sway, France will remain influential over the medium term because of cultural and linguistic ties.
• African leaders in former colonies will increasingly look to France for diplomatic help in reducing debt burdens.
• French security interests will not follow trade trends and military operations will persist over the medium-to-long term.