No surprises in heavily engineered Russian elections

Outlook

United Russia secured 198 of the 225 first-past-the-post State Duma seats, and its 49.8% proportional vote share for the other 225 will take it to around 320, a comfortable super-majority. The Communists lifted their vote share from 13.3% in 2016 to 18.9% but lost heavily in first-past-the-post constituencies. Kremlin-approved candidates won in all eleven regions electing governors.

United Russia generally scores poorly on popularity: its electoral success stems from repression of competitors, outright electoral fraud, opaque innovations such as online voting, a new electorate of Russian passport-holders in eastern Ukraine and President Vladimir Putin’s gift of cash for pensioners, soldiers and police.

Impacts

• The Kremlin has opted for certainty over experimentation with political mechanisms, and relegated United Russia to an arm of the state.
• The authorities will return repeatedly to claims of Western ‘election interference’, based on misreadings of internet freedom.
• On day one, Google and Apple played a part in United Russia’s success by removing ‘smart voting’ apps suggesting alternative candidates.
• Video footage which the electoral authorities cited as proof of election-related ‘fake news’-making was itself faked.