Vaccination has plateaued in some eastern EU states

Outlook

Ireland leads the EU for vaccinations, week after week maintaining a steady pace, and only decelerating now as it nears the finish. Bringing up the rear are all eleven eastern member states (EU-11).

Those of the EU-11 that are showing a sustained effort seem likely to finish well -- the three Baltic states and Slovenia. Those that got off to a good start, but have slowed markedly since -- Croatia, the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and (particularly) Hungary -- may find it hard to complete the course. Bulgaria and Romania may be laggards but have put on a late spurt.

Impacts

• Low vaccination rates correlate with high death rates per million, which are highest in the EU in Bulgaria (22.8) and Romania (21.1).
• Stagnating vaccination rates may indicate low trust in the authorities and widespread disinformation.
• Ireland, Malta and Portugal, by contrast, show that it is possible to achieve vaccination rates of more than 90%.
• Recent efforts in Romania and Bulgaria to make it easier to get a jab or make daily life harder for the unvaccinated may boost take-up.