Latin America’s pandemic recovery will be patchy
A strong bounceback from the pandemic in some parts of the region may be temporary, even as others still struggle
Source: UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC); Our World in Data
Outlook
While post-pandemic recovery in parts of Latin America and the Caribbean has been stronger than expected, that recovery varies sharply across countries and remains fragile.
Exports have recovered strongly, up by around 25%, though this relates primarily to high global prices for food and mining commodities. Countries dependent on tourism, such as those in Central America and the Caribbean, potentially face a more difficult outlook, especially if new COVID waves emerge in tourists’ countries of origin.
Commodity-driven growth will bolster fiscal resources but raise social and political pressures over how these are used, especially if the employment impact is limited.
Impacts
- The impact of strong copper prices will boost fiscal resources in Chile and Peru but also political instability.
- High consumer prices driven in part by global food prices will shake policy-making in Brazil and Argentina.
- Early growth forecasts may be revised upward, as in Peru -- but also downward, as is likely in Brazil.
- Continuing sluggishness in vaccine distribution in some countries could mar or delay recovery prospects.
See also
- Post-pandemic inequality will endure in Latin America - Feb 8, 2022
- Government should pass referendum test in Uruguay - Feb 2, 2022
- Bolivia COVID-19 card scheme could boost vaccination - Jan 7, 2022
- Rising Argentina COVID cases represent economic risk - Jan 5, 2022
- COVID comeback could threaten Latin American recovery - Dec 31, 2021
- Pandemic impact boosts Latin American food insecurity - Dec 22, 2021
- Prospects for Argentina in 2022 - Nov 19, 2021
- Prospects for Mexico in 2022 - Nov 18, 2021
- Prospects for Brazil in 2022 - Nov 16, 2021
- More graphic analysis