Election doubts will raise worldwide uncertainties

Outlook

With the exception of the former Soviet states, regions across the globe will hold a range of key elections during 2022. Many of these will be polarised and, in the Americas, are likely to lead to divided control of executive and legislative branches.

The new wave of COVID-19 infections in Europe may have an impact on elections due in the coming months, notably in France.

In Africa, February polls in Mali are set to be delayed despite regional pressures, while mid-terms in Senegal will gauge the strength of growing opposition to President Macky Sall and his potential third-term ambitions.

Impacts

• Further surprises are possible: for instance, the 2023 Turkish elections could be brought forward.
• Divided parliaments will make it difficult for governments to advance their agendas.
• Of the seven state elections due in India, Uttar Pradesh’s will be the most keenly contested.
• In the United States, 33 gubernatorial elections will further complicate the outlook.