Economic issues will dominate Colombia elections

Outlook

This year’s elections will take place in the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic. Polling nevertheless suggests the public is relatively relaxed about the health crisis itself, placing more importance on its economic fallout. Presidential candidates will strive to demonstrate their ability to address issues such as unemployment and poverty.

Economic concerns could leave current poll leader Gustavo Petro particularly vulnerable to political attack, with opponents using his leftist image to sow doubt about his competence. With polling suggesting two-thirds of Colombians believe their country could in future ‘be in the same situation as Venezuela’, such doubts may prove powerful.

Impacts

• Public attitudes suggest that any reintroduction of pandemic restrictions, even with cases rising, would be politically risky.
• Efforts by Petro to expand his support base risk alienating socially progressive voters who have backed him in the past.
• Dissatisfaction with the current government will not play well for the Democratic Centre’s Oscar Ivan Zuluaga.
• The next president may benefit from positive economic trends that are driven more by post-lockdown recovery than their own policies.