Russian leader weighs options against costs and gains

Outlook

President Vladimir Putin is demanding changes to NATO’s presence in eastern Europe and absolute guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO. In a separate diplomatic process, he wants movement towards a political settlement for eastern Ukraine -- but on his terms, which the current government in Kyiv resolutely opposes.

Russia’s apparent willingness to keep talking does not fit easily with massive troop deployments around Ukraine. An impulsive decision is a risk. Otherwise, Putin’s calculations will encompass the extent to which varying degrees of threat or actual use of military force fulfil his demands, and how they balance out against sanctions risks.

Impacts

• The positioning of Russian forces correlates most closely with a large push from the east supported by advances from the north and south.
• Putin may drag the crisis out, scaling verbal and military threats up and down to keep the West in constant fear of an imminent attack.
• Video footage of heavy weapons being moved comes nowhere near credible evidence to support the official narrative of a partial withdrawal.
• The Kremlin’s vague demurrals on war plans have allowed it to ignore discussion of mass casualties, civilian and military.