Prospects 2019 Update

Partisan rancour will deepen at the expense of much major legislation being passed down to December

With an election coming next year, the administration will spend the second half seeking foreign policy wins

Multiple security challenges remain, and Baghdad is seeking diplomatic successes abroad amid political jostling at home

Despite some positive outliers, much of the continent has failed to build sufficient internal buffers

Declining exports, EU funds and fixed investment will moderate growth; the EU will prioritise stability over enlargement

Job strength and low rates will power growth, but housing and industry will drag on GDP while trade and debts pose risks

Early elections are more likely to take place in Italy, where the far-right League looks set to consolidate its power.

Growth is a certainty, but at a low rate dictated by external pressures and domestic constraints

The US-Iran crisis, with a US military build-up in the Gulf continuing, will overshadow the rest of the year

The leadership in Tehran feels confident it can weather the US pressure campaign

Policy uncertainty looks set to cloud Mexico’s economic outlook for the rest of the year

Domestic political tensions dominate the picture, as regional states struggle with longstanding reform challenges

Conservative Party MPs believe that Boris Johnson is the party's best chance of defeating opponents in an election

Trade tensions and subdued global growth will cap demand growth while non-OPEC oil supply will continue to rise

The president's attention is increasingly taken up by social concerns and institutional instability

The conflict rumbles on in the north-west, while recent economic improvements have stalled

Islamabad faces obstacles as it strives for economic recovery

Economic problems and disputes with Washington overshadow the celebration of a major national anniversary

EM growth has slowed modestly and expectations that it will improve to end-2019 and into 2020 may prove over optimistic

The re-elected Bharatiya Janata Party government faces key political, economic and social challenges

Instability looks likely to increase as Erdogan battles with growing challenges on several fronts

The country could return to recession, as confidence falls and political divisions mount

Limited prospects for economic recovery will cast a pall over the October general elections

North African states each look to their domestic issues in the second half of 2019

Weak trade and productivity may outweigh looser policy, jeopardising hopes of stable or slightly stronger global growth