Daily Analysis
Thursday, December 5, 2024
Mexico’s 2025 budget may prove too optimistic
Mexico’s budget for 2025 is based on numerous optimistic forecasts and assumptions
Iceland looks on course for a shift to the left
Iceland’s main left-wing party saw its support double in the recent general election
Geopolitical competition will intensify in Afghanistan
The country’s relations with the major powers are increasingly under the spotlight
Ethiopia’s shrinking civic space may contract further
The government is tightening restrictions on civil society and media organisations
EthiopiaSerbia’s Vucic faces an increasingly implacable public
A new round of protests triggered by a deadly roof collapse reveals deep discontent among Serbs
SerbiaCritical minerals recycling to grow amid high hurdles
Developing and scaling up new technologies is key to safely recycling far more critical minerals
InternationalGulf states will be fiscally resilient into 2025
Diversification projects will offset lower oil and gas prices for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies
Gulf statesGovernment defeat leaves France with no easy options
The government has fallen after becoming the country’s first since 1962 to lose a no-confidence vote
FranceA new US administration seeks breakthrough in Gaza war
Truce discussions are likely to pick up ahead of the inauguration of a new US president in January 2025
PalestiniansFractious Argentine politics will complicate reforms
President Javier Milei has suggested the end of his tepid alliance with former President Mauricio Macri
ArgentinaSouth Africa coal ruling will energise green activists
A Gauteng court has deemed government plans to open new coal-fired power stations unconstitutional
South AfricaShoal will be key focus of Philippine-Chinese row
A confrontation near Scarborough Shoal adds to the growing tensions between Manila and Beijing over the South China Sea
PhilippinesForeign businesses in China face growing pressures
The German and UK chambers of commerce in China have released their latest surveys
ChinaNorth Korea-Russia defence ties will deepen further
The two countries’ mutual defence agreement signed in June, reportedly came into effect yesterday
North KoreaSoft but solid global growth carries momentum to 2025
The OECD upgraded its US, UK, China and India growth forecasts for 2025 but downgraded those for major euro-area states
InternationalUS-European-Asian economic activity variance will grow
US services orders rose to the highest since early 2022 while euro-area orders fell the most so far in 2024
InternationalBrazilian growth looks set to slow into next year
GDP expanded by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, down from quarterly growth of 1.4% in the second
BrazilColombia’s new finance minister faces tough challenges
The finance minister has been pushed to step down, at an awkward time for the government
ColombiaHuman rights pressure will not move Venezuela's Maduro
The UN Human Rights Committee and International Criminal Court have stepped up pressure on Caracas this week
VenezuelaLebanon’s PMI could return to growth territory
November’s PMI shows that private sector business activity is contracting more slowly than in October
LebanonNiger's junta may push out French uranium company
French uranium miner Orano has claimed that it has lost control of its operations in Niger
NigerRomania will likely enter a period of uncertainty
President Klaus Iohannis declassified reports on interference in the first round of presidential elections
RomaniaArmenia likely to move further away from CSTO
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that Armenia has reached a "point of no return" in distancing itself from the CSTO
Armenia
