INT
ECB and Fed to delay rate cuts to sustain disinflation
The timing of the US/EU policy pivot to rate cuts is uncertain; rising euro-area expectations and wages raise concern
InternationalSea-level rise to necessitate adaptation globally
With sea-level rise an inevitability, adaptation measures are gaining increased attention
InternationalForeign workers will ease Japan’s labour shortage
Despite wide anecdotal evidence of labour shortages, nominal wages have risen little and real wages have fallen
JapanPartnerships between AI firms and militaries will grow
Militaries will increasingly seek out private artificial intelligence firms for cutting-edge technology
InternationalAI global surge creates environmental paradox
The artificial intelligence (AI) boom is drawing attention to its environmental footprint
InternationalDigital euro will launch but perhaps later than 2027
Plans for the digital euro see a 2027 launch but the ECB still needs to win support from commercial banks and citizens
InternationalCentral US treasury clearing marks substantial change
Big banks, broker dealers and hedge funds will have to settle their treasury and repo trades centrally from 2026
United StatesChina’s domestic activity will slow modestly in 2024
Stronger consumption and infrastructure investment offset weaker property investment and trade to take GDP above 5%
China
