INT
UK economy faces a long period of stagflation
Headline inflation slowed to 3.9% in November but core inflation remains above 5.0%
United KingdomCOP28 actions will fall short of Paris goals
COP28 had mixed results, paving the way for more ambitious climate action, but also leaving substantial room for failure
InternationalRed Sea crisis will worsen the world trade downturn
Many shipping firms are no longer sending ships through the Red Sea; this is sharply disrupting global trade
InternationalECB rate cuts may start a little later than US cuts
The ECB left interest rates on hold but announced a slight speeding up of its balance sheet reduction plans
EUPMIs signal more services inflation and trade weakness
The flash PMIs for the UK, euro-area, Japan and Australia continue the long-standing services/manufacturing divergence
InternationalGenAI will test major 2024 national elections
Several major countries will hold national polls next year amid rising risk from artificially generated disinformation
InternationalFed will remain more cautious than markets on rates
The Fed left rates on hold as widely expected; it expects three cuts of 25bp each next year
United StatesThis downturn will be more job-rich than past slumps
Employment recovered far faster from the pandemic global recession than past crises, and remains historically strong
International
