NATO
Militarisation will cause rising distortions in Russia
Surging defence expenditure is reshaping the Russian economy
RussiaGermany will struggle to meet its defence objectives
There are strong doubts regarding Germany’s capacity to maintain current levels of defence spending after 2026
GermanyRussia will spur East European modernised air defence
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has spurred NATO members to strengthen their military posture and upgrade air defence
Eastern EuropeRussia will continue to prioritise the Arctic
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent expansion of NATO has upset Moscow’s strategic approach to the Arctic
RussiaUnited Kingdom will contribute to Balkan security
The UK government has increased its troop deployment to Kosovo, signalling a steadfast commitment to Balkan stability
United KingdomArctic neighbours will approach Russia cautiously
Arctic stability is at a critical juncture as competition intensifies over shipping routes and natural resources
ArcticGreece’s foreign policy ambitions will grow
Greek diplomacy has become more active with regard to the Balkans, Ukraine, Turkey and the Eastern Mediterranean
GreeceNATO will integrate Ukraine gradually
The Vilnius summit confirmed that Ukraine will join NATO in the future and removed obstacles to Sweden's accession
NATO
