International
Central bank policies diverge amid political strains
The US Federal Reserve is notably further ahead than the ECB or Bank of England in considering rate cuts next year
InternationalCleaner GDP as nations grow helps to cut CO2 emissions
GDP growth is correlated with falling emissions once states reach upper middle income, contributing to climate targets
InternationalRed Sea crisis will worsen the world trade downturn
Many shipping firms are no longer sending ships through the Red Sea; this is sharply disrupting global trade
InternationalCOP28 actions will fall short of Paris goals
COP28 had mixed results, paving the way for more ambitious climate action, but also leaving substantial room for failure
InternationalECB rate cuts may start a little later than US cuts
The ECB left interest rates on hold but announced a slight speeding up of its balance sheet reduction plans
EUPMIs signal more services inflation and trade weakness
The flash PMIs for the UK, euro-area, Japan and Australia continue the long-standing services/manufacturing divergence
InternationalGenAI will test major 2024 national elections
Several major countries will hold national polls next year amid rising risk from artificially generated disinformation
InternationalHopes of firm trade rebound are unsure and optimistic
UNCTAD estimates that world goods trade fell by 7.5% this year by value, and services trade rose by 7.0%
International
