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Gaza ceasefire might avert looming Israel-Lebanon war
The status quo of limited escalation on the Israel-Lebanon border looks increasingly unsustainable
Hezbollah's fight will hamper Lebanese secularists
A rocky decade has seen the re-emergence of anti-sectarian activism, especially in Beirut
Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah manoeuvring endangers Lebanon
The recent Israeli assassination of a key Palestinian figure in Beirut has far wider regional fallout
Risks of a Lebanon-Israel escalation are rising
A second front has, on balance, become the more likely scenario
Lebanon’s central bank vacuum heralds more devaluation
The four deputy central bank governors have threatened resignation unless politicians implement long-delayed reforms
Prospects for Middle East conflict in 2024
The consequences of the Gaza crisis will reverberate through next year
Lebanon’s dual crisis will degrade public security
Financial shortfalls drive up crime and demotivate the underpaid security forces, with political leadership lacking
Middle East states will look to Europe’s gas market
Eastern Mediterranean gas development has stepped up in hopes of forming a new hub
Lebanon and Israel face more offshore gas challenges
The two countries looked to the recent delineation of their maritime border to unlock foreign investment
Lebanon risks hyperinflation and forced dollarisation
Absent political will for financial reform, the authorities are allowing informal dollarisation to stabilise the economy
Lebanon’s local port blast investigation will stall
Judicial infighting and political blockages are undermining the prospect of accountability for hundreds of deaths
Middle East currency weakness will fuel inflation
The currencies of Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria have weakened sharply since September; Turkey’s is still exposed
Lebanon will bargain for more Syrian refugee returns
Rising anti-Syrian sentiment has provoked hate speech and new deportations