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Prospects for Middle East conflict in 2024
The consequences of the Gaza crisis will reverberate through next year
US peace efforts will face Arab distrust
Washington seeks a ceasefire and offers a pathway to a Palestinian state, but the region’s public is sceptical
Prospects for coups in Africa in 2024
Africa has experienced nine successful coups since 2020
Russia will employ new military unit across Africa
Russia’s defence ministry has created a new unit named the African Corps, which will partly replace Wagner PMC
Insecurity will drive Africa defence spending growth
A number of countries in the Sahel and Great Lakes have substantially increased defence spending
Prospects for East Africa and the Great Lakes in 2024
After a relatively quieter year in 2023, the coming 12 months look set to pose renewed challenges across the region
Democratic slippages may fuel African coups
African governments face legitimacy challenges due to corruption, insecurity, economic malaise and unaccountability
African debt distress increases instability risks
Rising debt burdens are forcing governments to increase taxes, worsening the cost-of-living crisis
Prospects for Sub-Saharan African economies in 2024
The multiple external shocks of recent years have exposed long-standing problems within many of the region's economies
Russia's African reach will be limited despite summit
The second Russia-Africa summit was held on July 26-27 in St Petersburg
Middle East FDI inflows will vary widely
Foreign direct investment (FDI) to the Middle East is limited by high barriers and political and security concerns
Middle East states will look to Europe’s gas market
Eastern Mediterranean gas development has stepped up in hopes of forming a new hub
Digital election technology faces obstacles in Africa
African countries are increasingly resorting to digital technologies to improve the credibility of elections
Climate change will hit Middle East/North Africa hard
The Middle East and North Africa is highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change, but adaption policies are weak