Russia
Russia’s ruble woes serious but not catastrophic
Sanctions and fluctuations in Russia’s trade balance have caused a sharp depreciation of the ruble
RussiaRussia-China rivalry in Central Asia unlikely to grow
China’s growing political and economic influence in Central Asia has not yet generated damaging rivalry with Russia
Central AsiaEuropean powers will step up Arctic security focus
Arctic security is becoming increasingly important for European powers following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
NATORussian reliance on China for dual-use goods will rise
China emerged as a key supplier of dual-use goods to Russia following the imposition of Western sanctions in 2022
RussiaProspects for Ukraine in 2025
The war and the potential of reduced external support will continue to shape Ukraine’s prospects in 2025
UkraineRelations between Georgia and Abkhazia will improve
Moscow has indicated that it could facilitate closer ties between Tbilisi and the two breakaway regions
GeorgiaModernisation of Russian Pacific Fleet will be slow
The Pacific Fleet’s combat capabilities have diminished due to the slow pace of naval modernisation
RussiaIndonesia will strive to draw closer to Russia
The two countries held joint naval drills last week
IndonesiaProspects for the Russian economy in 2025
After two years of faster-than-expected expansion, the growth rate is likely to slow over the next year
Russia
