Ukraine
Russia’s relations with Egypt will face limits
Russia and Egypt have grown closer as both countries seek to diversify their range of foreign partnerships
RussiaRussian gas sales to Central Asia will rise
Gazprom is seeking to increase gas exports to Central Asia to compensate for the loss of European markets
Central AsiaRussia will weigh up escalatory options
Russia has several options if it responds to any lifting of restrictions on the use of long-range missiles for Ukraine
RussiaUkraine government reshuffle increases executive power
President Zelensky has carried out the biggest overhaul of the leadership since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022
UkraineUkrainian forces will struggle to regain initiative
Despite both sides making some progress on the frontline, neither side appears capable of a decisive breakthrough
UkraineEastern Europe’s gas deliveries are on shaky ground
Fighting in Russia around key gas infrastructure has raised supply fears in Central-Eastern Europe
Eastern EuropeCoalition tensions will persist over German budget
The ruling parties are struggling to find ways to reduce the budget hole and account for promised spending cutbacks
GermanyGerman support for Ukraine could be at a crossroads
Germany will reportedly halve its support for Ukraine next year and refuse requests for additional support
GermanyRussia’s African Corps will remain engaged in Mali
Russian forces from the African Corps suffered significant losses during an ambush in Mali in late July
Russia
