US/IRAQ: Troop pullout will broadly destabilise region

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In this article

  • Medium-term withdrawal
  • No near-term retreat
  • Post-2009 withdrawal imperative
  • Sobering post-withdrawal outlook
  • Inadequate Iraqi government
  • Inadequate US strategy
  • Gates's rethink
  • Key trends
  • US domestic politics
  • Iranian influence
  • Ankara's fears
  • Impatient Arab neighbours
  • No European help
  • Paralysed central government
  • Weakness and ineptitude
  • Response to pullout?
  • Alternative leaders murdered
  • Fragmentation and 'soft partition'
  • Consequences of withdrawal
  • No al-Qaida haven
  • Increasing sectarian hatred
  • Perception of 'defeat'
  • Arab-Israeli conflict implications
  • North African radicalisation
  • Destabilised Jordan

What is this?

This article is from the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief, which analyses geopolitical, economic, social, business and industrial developments on a global and regional basis, providing clients with timely, authoritative analysis every business day of the year. Find out more about the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief, or request a trial.