Analysis

The United States was once a leader in negotiating climate treaties, starting with the Rio conference in 1992, but it lost its vanguard position when a lack of broad-based domestic support eroded its negotiating position vis-a-vis the Kyoto Protocol. Washington rejected the Kyoto Protocol during the Bush administration in 2001.

However, with a Democratic Party administration, the United States is poised to turn climate change into a cornerstone of its foreign policy and reclaim its status as a leader.

In 2009, the newly appointed secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, put climate change on the agenda of her first visit to China. Another shift in China-US relations took place after April 2013, when the two countries initiated the US-China Climate Change Working Group, which handles issues of common interest such as energy efficiency, smart grids and greenhouse gas data.

At a 2011 meeting, US President Barack Obama and China's then president, Hu Jintao, signed a 150 million dollar agreement on a US-China Clean Energy Research Center.

Then, in November 2014, Obama and President Xi Jinping made their unprecedented joint pledges. Without these commitments, the UN Environment Programme projects that emissions will exceed by 40% the level consistent with a 2-degree temperature rise in 2030.

Two targets

Obama, in his last year in office, may well aim to make a climate change breakthrough at the UNFCCC part of his presidential legacy. However, to fulfil its pledge, the United States will have to double the pace of its emissions reductions.

China, to implement the agreement, will draw on its emissions trading scheme, which will extend nationwide in 2016 (see CHINA: Carbon trading paves way for global system - August 21, 2013). However, carbon prices will have to rise to 30 dollars per tonne in 2030, and nuclear and renewable energy efforts will need to be ramped up to a level exceeding the total energy provided by coal-fired power plants now operating in China (see CHINA: Economic rebound endangers plans to curb coal - February 11, 2013).

Domestic developments will determine whether the momentum is maintained. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang underlined the importance of the 'war' on pollution at the National People's Congress earlier this month, but implementation may slow down amid reduced forecasts for economic growth.

Beijing has not specified an absolute level of emissions at its planned 2030 peak. If the period to 2015-30 sees an increase comparable to the doubling of per capita emissions during 2004-13, the target of limiting global warming to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels -- agreed at the 2009 Copenhagen Summit -- will be unachievable.

Momentum for Paris

The US-China agreement sets out the two countries' positions ahead of the Paris climate summit in December, the next annual meeting of the UNFCCC.

The last major multilateral climate agreement, the Kyoto Protocol, expired in 2012, and was extended with a smaller number of signatories until 2020. The Paris meeting will see a new agreement hammered out, which will include commitments by developed and developing countries alike.

In the past, political will was missing. The US Senate's Byrd-Hagel Resolution of 1997 stipulated that, to receive Senate approval, any negotiated agreement would have to impose emissions targets on developing countries. US inaction was China's prime excuse for its own.

However, that resolution will no longer apply, once Washington and Beijing submit their pledges under the UNFCCC for the negotiations on a global agreement in December.

Most countries are now committed to addressing climate change, even if discussion is still under way over the structure of the next treaty, whether emissions will be varied according to each country and how much cost will be borne by developed countries.

Following suit

Just ahead of the US-China climate deal, the EU announced a more ambitious target of reducing emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030.

In January 2015, Obama visited India, where climate change ranked high on the agenda. While there was no common agreement similar to that with China, more cooperation on climate projects was pledged.

As part of Washington's new climate diplomacy, initiatives such as the US-China Clean Energy Research Center could serve as templates and be replicated in countries such as India and the United Arab Emirates. These centres could also provide networking platforms for US businesses and provide funding opportunities.