China makes progress on environment -- but not enough

Analysis

For much of the post-Mao period, the ethos of 'growth at any price' generated unprecedented environmental pressures.

Severe air pollution is the most conspicuous result. Yale University's Environmental Performance Index (EPI) ranked China 176th out of 178 countries for air quality and 178th for exposure to PM2.5 particulate air pollution.

Yet environmental pressures go far beyond air pollution. They include:

• erosion of arable land;
• declining soil fertility and increasing soil pollution (10% of arable land is believed to be contaminated by lead, zinc and heavy metals);
• deforestation and desertification due to overgrazing, tree felling and unsuitable farming techniques;
• depletion of aquifers and increasingly severe groundwater shortages (China has 20% of the world's population and just 7% of its fresh water);
• severe water pollution; and
• fragility of ecosystems.

The costs of China's environmental degradation are felt beyond its borders. Air, soil and water in Japan and South Korea are contaminated by Chinese pollution, which is a significant source of air pollution even in the western United States.

By 2016, China's cumulative greenhouse gas emissions since 1990 are expected to overtake those of the United States, making it the largest source of global warming during this period.

Counting the cost

Measuring the impact of environmental damage is difficult, but the economic and social costs are undoubtedly enormous.

The Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning estimated the economic cost of environmental damage rising from 140 billion dollars in 2008 (3.9% of GDP) to 230 billion dollars in 2012 (3.5% of GDP). These figures may be conservative.

A 2007 World Bank study estimated the cost of air and water pollution in China at about 5.8% of GDP, with health costs alone equalling 4.3% of GDP. The UNDP has put the overall environmental cost of growth at 9% of GDP. The human cost is huge.

In 2004, environmental scholar Elizabeth Economy estimated that each year 300,000 Chinese died prematurely from respiratory disease resulting from pollution.

A more recent report estimated that air pollution in northern China shortened people's lives by 5.5 years compared with those living in the cleaner south.

New responses

The government has long recognised the dangers and from the early 2000s sought to redirect the economy towards a more sustainable path. Progress has been limited: during the past decade China's overall EPI has risen by a mere 2.6%.

In April 2014, amendments to the 1989 Environmental Protection Law promised greater power for environmental officials, while making local government officials responsible for "serious environmental events" within their jurisdictions.

The following month, the environment ministry issued new emissions standards for tin, antinomy, mercury and other chemicals discharged into the ground or water systems. The same month, new State Council regulations linked cadre performance assessments to air pollution targets.

Climate commitment

Last month, following a climate summit with the EU, China published its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) targets for 2030:

• a peak in CO2 emissions;
• reducing CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65% on 2005 levels;
• raising the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 20%; and
• increasing forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic metres.

These targets build on previous commitments to reduce carbon intensity by 40-45% and increase the share of non-fossil fuels to 15% by 2020 (see CHINA/US: Deal sets stage for new climate regime - April 6, 2015).

These targets will be embodied in the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20), which reports indicate will for the first time include caps on carbon emissions and coal use.

It was announced in November 2014 that coal consumption would be limited to 4.2 billion tonnes by 2020 (it had been 3.6 billion tonnes in 2013) (see CHINA: Fate of coal demand lies in Beijing's hands - July 13, 2015).

Political cost

Local media reports of environment-related protests are widespread and frequent. Their number is estimated to have increased by 29% annually between 1996 and 2011.

The touchstone of the Communist Party's right to rule has been its ability to raise living standards. Initially this just meant rising incomes, but with affluence has come greater awareness that quality of life also depends on the environment.

The proportion of respondents to a Pew Research Centre survey who regard air pollution as "a very big problem" rose from 36% in 2012 to 47% in 2013, while a Shanghai Jiao Tong University survey indicated that almost 80% of residents in 34 cities thought environmental protection should be a higher priority than economic development.

Yet with poverty still widespread, it is difficult to satisfy simultaneous demands for higher incomes and qualitative improvements in living standards.

Activism and implementation

The key to the success of recent policy initiatives lies in implementation and enforcement -- something that environmental activism will help.

An example that gained international attention was journalist Chai Jing's documentary on air pollution, 'Under the dome', released online on February 28, which within days had been viewed some 200 million times. It was eventually removed from public video streaming sites, but environment minister Chen praised it.

In response to a journalist's question which referenced 'Under the dome', Premier Li Keqiang the following month reaffirmed that law enforcement was the "ultimate weapon" against pollution and warned that "the cost on those involved in illegal production and emission will be too high to bear".

If such promises translate into pressure on industry and local government to strengthen compliance, the 13th Five-year Plan may yet be a turning point in efforts to reverse environmental degradation.