Election dispute belies Togo's deeper stability risks
Though legal, the president's third-term win is rekindling long-held frustration with the regime
On April 28, the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) announced that President Faure Gnassingbe had won re-election in the presidential ballot held on April 25, with 58.75% of the vote. His controversial third term will extend his family's rule to nearly 50 years. Opposition candidate Jean-Pierre Fabre secured 34.95% of the vote. His Combat for Political Change (CAP) alliance rejects the result.
What next
Regional mediation efforts will seek to reconcile Gnassingbe and opposition groups, possibly by incorporating more of them in a national unity government. Divisions among opposition parties could complicate this. Fabre is likely to hold out unless a deal is sufficiently generous. However, such mediation will not address deeper social tensions, which could pose medium-term stability risks.
Subsidiary Impacts
- Western donors' effectiveness at pushing for democratic norms will wane as Togo, like other African states, accesses new debt sources.
- Togo's membership of the West African CFA franc zone, which is backed by the French treasury, will ensure currency stability.
- A Burkina Faso-style ouster of Gnassingbe is unlikely, for now -- he enjoys the support of the military who first installed him.
- Despite being spared the Ebola crisis, standards of public health will remain poor, with child mortality rates far above global averages.
Analysis
Other opposition candidates secured substantially smaller shares of the vote:
- Mohamed Tchassona Traore, a former lawyer, with support in the central region: 0.99%;
- Aime Gogue, a former dean at Lome University: 3.08%; and
- Gerry Taama, a former military officer: 1.06%.
Turnout was between 50-55%, down from 60-64% in previous polls, which could signal growing voter apathy (see AFRICA: Parties are key to stability, reform prospects - April 27, 2015).
CAP claims that the results diverge substantially from their exit polling; it also alleges procedural and counting irregularities. Premature statements indicating a Gnassingbe win have added to suspicions. Only twelve out of 42 regions had formally released results when the president's camp began proclaiming victory.
The largest opposition group rejects the poll result, but claims victory, posing a challenge to regional mediators
CAP has not yet been able to provide solid evidence to support its claims. Nonetheless, despite demanding the election results be cancelled, Fabre told Agence France Presse that he considers himself the new president.
Divided opposition
Opposition parties had, prior to the poll, failed to reach an agreement on fielding a single candidate to challenge Gnassingbe. Some, instead, supported the president, notably the New Vision Coalition, which brings together three smaller parties, including the Pan-African Patriotic Convention. Its leader, Francis Ekron, expressed his preference for cooperating with the regime.
Another group, the Union of Forces for Change, also decided to ally itself with the government. Its leaders consider Fabre "not competent" to lead the country. These pro-government leaders are likely to be rewarded with cabinet positions, thereby isolating Fabre.
In contrast, the Committee of Action for Renewal opted to boycott the poll. Its leader, Paul Dodji Apevon, believed that the result was a foregone conclusion since conditions allegedly precluded free and transparent voting.
The result of these divisions is that the combined opposition offered fewer candidates (four) than in 2010, when there were seven contenders. Nevertheless, this still split the opposition vote.
Election SUCCES
The election featured Togo's first electronic voting data collation, counting and transmission -- the Unified System for Collecting and Centralisation of Statistics for the Elections (SUCCES). Popular with donors, the system ostensibly limits opportunities for fraud, eg by 'ghost' voters, and reduces counting inaccuracies.
Fabre and Civic Movement for Democracy's Traore argued that SUCCES was not transparent but created new opportunities for vote-rigging (see AFRICA: Voter technology failures de-legitimise polls - June 24, 2014).
Doubts over new vote data collation and counting technology have increased, not reduced, fears of vote-rigging
They appealed to Ghanaian President John Mahama, the Economic Community of West African States' head and official lead observer. He convinced CENI to delay the poll for ten days, from April 15 to 25, ostensibly to address opposition concerns about SUCCES. However, no changes to the system followed.
Simmering frustrations
The pre-election period was marked by large-scale protests by opposition parties and civil society groups against Gnassingbe running for a third term. In February, a bill proposing introducing term limits was defeated by the ruling UNIR party's large parliamentary majority. Only Togo and Gambia among West African nations lack term limits.
The parliamentary debate coincided with a ruling by the Constitutional Court that polls must be held by March 5 "at the latest". Though this deadline was not met, the requirement legally precluded the possibility of any term limits applying to this election. These factors contributed to heightening doubts over the impartiality of state institutions, including CENI and the judiciary.
The polls themselves proceeded with only minor disturbances (see TOGO: Stability will hold despite rumbling unease - September 6, 2013).
Minor scuffles
One such event occurred in Bagida, a suburb of the capital Lome, which is largely pro-opposition. A group of residents accompanied the ballot boxes and official reports from 149 voting stations to the central collation office. They then asked to participate in the counting, which was rejected. Local CENI officials then called in the special election security forces to eject the residents, which led to low-level scuffles.
Subsequently, opposition parties have requested a manual recount. So far, their demands have been unsuccessful. Doubts over CENI's impartiality means this would anyway probably not resolve the dispute.
Ongoing mediation
The election results must still be confirmed by the Constitutional Court, which will then allow CENI's head, Taffa Tabiou, to make a final official declaration, probably on May 2. This provides an opportunity for mediation between the president and Fabre, which is being led by the Ivorian and Ghanaian presidents, Alassane Ouattara and Mahama.
Tabiou is likely to confirm Gnassingbe's victory, possibly reviving the pre-election protests that occured in Lome. Unless regional leaders can mediate a power-sharing deal, this could escalate into a wider popular uprising -- as was the case in 2006 when the president succeeded his late father.
Policy challenges
Opposition parties and civil society may leverage popular frustration over poor social conditions to mobilise anti-Gnassingbe protests.
Economic growth is slowing. The World Bank forecasts a deceleration to 5.0% in 2015 and 4.9% in 2016 from 5.2% in 2014. Poverty rates remain high. Around 59% of Togolais live on less than 2 dollars per day. Togo ranked 166th on the UN Development Programme's Human Development Index in 2014, down from 159th in 2013.
Demographics could also undermine stability. Around 75% of Togolais are under 35, with 35% aged 15-35. The majority of these (85%) leave school without a qualification, driving frustrations over lacklustre investment in education. In February, this led to protests at schools, which the government then closed as a precaution (see AFRICA: Youth activism grows with politics is in flux - December 17, 2014). Lome University has also seen clashes between police and students.