Parties hold key to Africa stability, reform prospects
The characteristics and structures of ruling parties in Africa shape the region's political and economic future
Despite Nigeria's historic election, the broad continental trend is that the future of many sub-Saharan African (SSA) states lies with ruling parties, not opposition politics. The convergence of multiple elections in 2015-16 along with commodity price shocks are bringing many ruling party regimes to a critical juncture. The structure of these regimes are an important indicator for the prospects for reforms and stability.
What next
Policy reform and implementation tends to face obstacles in states with institutionalised party systems, such as South Africa, Ghana and Tanzania. The need to appease the various factions that maintain overall stability blunt the scope for reform. By contrast, reform is easier in states ruled by parties centred on single personalities, such as Rwanda and Angola, but such systems are inherently unstable.
Subsidiary Impacts
- Narrow-based ruling parties in oil rich states are being forced to rationalise patronage networks to deal with the price shock.
- The broad character of Ghana's ruling and opposition parties means that both would face obstacles implementing IMF reforms.
- South Africa's opposition Democratic Alliance finds it hard to set clear policies while growing its base and attracting coalition partners.
Analysis
African ruling parties vary in a number of ways. However, two dimensions are particularly important: whether power rests with a broad or narrow constituency, and the extent to which the party is institutionalised or based on personal power.
Broad or narrow
Some governments are broad alliances encompassing a wide range of interests, personalities and ideological preferences. They can take the form of multi-ethnic coalitions or umbrella bodies that bring together diverse interest groups. Kenya's Jubilee Alliance is an example.
Other parties are very narrow and reflect the interests of a particular community or set of social interests, such as the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) or the Patriotic Front (PF) in Zambia.
Personal or institutionalised
Many African parties are dominated by single leaders. Leaders often have the capacity to set policy directions, usually without substantive consultations with lower party structures. Automony is often driven by influence over other prominent figures through promises of personal wealth, (Angola's President Eduardo Dos Santos), coercive threats (such as Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe) and efforts to divide lower party cadres in order to cement presidential authority (Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni).
A smaller number of parties are highly institutionalised. Members exercise significant power, placing greater constraints on leaders. The most obvious example is the ANC in South Africa, which has a large bureaucracy, extensive branch network and influential mid-ranking leaders. To a lesser extent, other examples include Tanzania, Mozambique and the two main parties in Ghana.
Narrow parties centred on one or a few leaders find it easier to make unpopular policy decisions, but risk instability
Reform and stability
The combination of how a party fits these broad definitions has implications for the prospects for reform and stability.
Reform and instability
Significant policy changes and political instability are most likely to occur in narrow personalised parties. The absence of counterweights to the party leader enables them to implement drastic policies. Depending on the technocratic quality of leadership, this can either boost reform prospects (as in Rwanda) or make the regulatory environment highly unpredictable (as in Uganda).
However, such systems also faciliate the abuse of power. While such regimes provide stability during the leader's tenure, the concentration of power makes smooth leadership transitions difficult. Succession processes are often controversial and damaging to unity (see ANGOLA: Dos Santos will control leadership succession - July 23, 2014).
Continuity and stability
Policy and political stability is most likely in broad institutionalised parties. Such parties contain a large number of people that can veto specific policy changes, constraining the options available to party leaders. However, such parties often struggle to implement innovative change.
Frequent swings in Zambia's mining tax code between 'resource nationalists' and 'pro-business' figures is typical of this pattern. In South Africa, calls for mine nationalisation were countered by moderate ANC members in favour of tougher black ownership requirements (see SOUTH AFRICA: "Radical" plan to hit mines, oil and gas - February 11, 2015). Both major parties in Ghana have struggled to tackle the roots to the economy's structural imbalances while in government, given the need to appeal to broad lower-level party bases.
However, such parties tend to govern more stable states. Gross abuses of power and destabilising succession battles are less likely as such processes tend to follow mutually-agreed rules and procedures. This is expected to be the case in Tanzania, which should select a party candidate by July for October elections.
Rwanda
President Paul Kagame's RPF government is a prominent example of a narrow personalised party with power concentrated in a small clique around the president.
His tight control has enabled him to implement a wide array of pro-business reforms supporting growth, enhancing Rwanda's investor attractiveness and cutting down on corruption. However, it has also facilitated persecution of opposition figures and dissenters within the RPF, as well as a controversial and antagonistic foreign policy with regional neighbours.
The highly personalised nature of the party means that the country's stability depends on Kagame's continued presence. For Kagame to stand again in 2017, a constitutional change is needed to remove term limits. While this is highly likely, the lack of overt competition within the RPF framework, and the arrest or assassination of several formerly influential RPF figures, suggests fragility in the political system (see EAST AFRICA: Ethiopia shows leadership transition risk - January 29, 2015).
Nigeria
The incoming All Progressives Congress (APC) is a broad patron party. However, it is only two years old and lacks strong internal structures. Elected on a reformist platform, President-elect Muhammadu Buhari's major campaign promise is to curb graft and increase transparency. However, the APC's coalition character could limit prospects for achieving this. Figures such as former Lagos State Governor Bola Tinubu will need to be rewarded for helping secure APC wins in the south-west, as will businessman Aliko Dangote for providing funding (see NIGERIA: Poll signals profound political shift - April 1, 2015).
Like most patron parties, the APC is vulnerable to future succession tensions. Disagreements between key leaders who draw their support from different parts of the country could plausibly splinter the party in the future.
South Africa
The ANC is both broad and institutionalised.
The broad and institutionalised ANC will maintain stability, but is unlikely to drive growth-enhancing reforms
It accommodates nationalists, socialists and pro-business moderates, and is in alliance with trade unions. Despite graft scandals and factionalism, it is also rule-bound. Leadership selection and succession processes follow formal procedures, closely overseen by branches. Divisions occur, such as over former President Thabo Mbeki's ousting, but the party remains intact, ensuring continuity.
Its broad character moderates policy, but also limits its ability to drive comprehensive Rwanda-style reforms (see SOUTH AFRICA: Cabinet choices reduce policy coherence - May 28, 2014). In 1996, when the former finance minister, Trevor Manuel, announced plans to liberalise the economy, key components were vetoed by trade unionists. The National Development Plan, adopted in 2012, faces similar obstacles.