Nuclear deal opens new era for Iran and the West

Analysis

One of the main principles Iran has agreed to under the final agreement -- a 159-page final document known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) -- is that it will never seek, develop or acquire nuclear weapons.

Limitations on enrichment

To this end, Iran has accepted stringent, long-term restrictions on its nuclear programme, in particular to reduce its enrichment capacity by two-thirds, and to cap the number of first-generation centrifuges at 5,060 for the next ten years (see IRAN: Tehran on track for final nuclear deal with West - April 6, 2015).

Iran has also agreed to restrictions on the following areas:

• Fordow.For the next 15 years, the underground facility cannot be used as an enrichment site, but only for purifying gases.
• Enriched uranium stockpiles. Iran will reduce its low enrichment uranium stockpile by 96% to 300 kilogrammes by diluting its stock or shipping it abroad.
• R&D. Iran can conduct limited laboratory tests without adding more enriched uranium for eight years. It will be permitted to test 30 more advanced IR-6 centrifuges.
• Natanz. It will only be able to produce 200 IR-6 and IR-8 centrifuges annually, and will be under constant IAEA supervision. After ten years, Iran will be able to manufacture complete centrifuges at the same rate annually.
• Arak. The heavy water reactor will be redesigned to prevent plutonium production. Iran has agreed to build no new heavy water reactors for 15 years.

Despite the limitations Tehran has accepted on its nuclear programme, the agreement recognises Iran's right to peaceful nuclear energy. This provision was of vital importance for Tehran.

Inspection and monitoring

Iran's nuclear supply chain will be under intense international scrutiny. In addition to the enrichment sites, this includes uranium mines, plants and storage facilities.

The IAEA has a crucial role in the inspection and verification process. Iran will ratify and implement the Additional Protocol, granting the IAEA access to both declared and undeclared sites. P5+1 ministers will evaluate progress every two years.

Iran has agreed to give the IAEA long-term access to key sites, to Natanz for 15 years, to verify centrifuge production for 20 years, and to oversee yellowcake manufacturing for 25 years.

During negotiations, a major source of tension arose over the need to access military facilities and scientists. Under the final deal, such sites can be inspected, but are subject to an intricate request and approval procedure.

Should Iran not resolve issues within two weeks of an IAEA request then a joint commission will try to resolve the dispute. If this fails, the issue will be referred to the UN Security Council (UNSC).

Past military research

Iran has committed to resolving questions around past possible military dimension (PMD) to its programme by December. This was another sensitive issue for Iran because it requires Iran to acknowledge past research. The IAEA will produce a full report after visits to Parchin and other military facilities.

Sanctions relief

Sanctions relief will be phased in only after the IAEA has verified Iran's compliance with the JCPOA's terms.

This process should begin in August and take between six to nine months, so Iran will not see any windfall until the first half of 2016. Most of the sanctions relief will come from the EU, with the US trade and investment embargo remaining largely in place:

• EU nuclear-related energy and financial sanctions will be lifted including the restoration of banking activities, shipping, insurance, trade, access to the SWIFT payment system, oil and gas exports, and investment in Iran.
• The United States will resume sales of commercial aircraft and parts, luxury goods, and sales in other sectors. Its sanctions on doing business in Iran will no longer be applied to non-US citizens.
• Existing UNSC sanctions will be removed, and the JCPOA will be enshrined in a new UNSC resolution. The UN arms embargo, which was another critical sticking point in negotiations, will remain in place for five years, while the missile sanctions will remain for eight years.

Human rights sanctions, travel bans on some individuals and restrictions on nuclear-related technology and materials will remain in place. The parties will explore options for mutual trade, investment and development, while Iran will gain access to more than 150 billion dollars in frozen assets.

If Iran breaches any terms of the agreement, UN, US and EU sanctions will snap back into place. In the event of a violation, UN sanctions will remain for another ten years.

Political obstacles

The main political risk comes from Republicans in Congress who oppose the deal.

Congress passed legislation in May guaranteeing oversight of the final agreement. It now has a 60-day review period during which Republicans will try to convince Democrats to support them against the deal.

They need at least 13 Democrats to gain a 'veto-proof' majority:

• Obama can prevent Congress overriding the deal, but needs 34 votes in the Senate. If Congress passes a resolution of disapproval, which is then vetoed by Obama, then they will have up to another 22 days to override the veto with a two-thirds majority.
• If Congress approves the deal or takes no action, implementation begins as scheduled under the agreement.

Congress will most likely voice disapproval, but will not go as far as killing the agreement. At most, they will try to limit the sanctions relief (see UNITED STATES: Congress may give Iran deal legitimacy - April 17, 2015).

Iranian legislators have also passed a bill setting their own restrictions on the agreement, including preventing access to military sites, demanding sanctions be lifted immediately, and that parliament be granted authority to ratify the Additional Protocol (see IRAN: IRGC will not derail deal - June 25, 2015).

However, final approval of the deal rests with the Supreme National Security Council, which is ultimately under Khamenei's authority. As such, the JCPOA is likely to gain Tehran's approval.