Iran's conservatives set to retain hold on parliament
This month's elections will determine the political and economic direction of post-sanctions Iran
Campaigning for Iran's parliamentary election begins today. Iranians will go to the polls on February 26 to elect the country's next parliament and the Assembly of Experts, the clerical supervisory body that is responsible for electing the Supreme Leader. With the elections following shortly after the landmark nuclear deal, the results will shape the post-sanctions economic and political climate.
What next
The elections could provide President Hassan Rouhani with a legislature that is more supportive of his policies. However, Iran's conservative establishment is managing the elections very closely, with the Guardian Council rejecting over half of those who registered to stand for parliament. This limits the potential for reformist and moderate gains, meaning that the incoming parliament is likely to be dominated by conservative voices.
Subsidiary Impacts
- Voter turnout will be a critical barometer of public support for Rouhani in the wake of the nuclear deal.
- The new parliament will give final approval to Iran's new petroleum contract model.
- The next Assembly of Experts is likely to choose the successor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Analysis
Since the election cycle began in December, there has been much controversy surrounding the forthcoming elections because the results of the elections will have important consequences for the political and economic future of Iran.
Parliament
Of the 12,123 candidates that registered for the parliamentary elections, a record for the Islamic Republic, the Guardian Council approved only 4,816 or 39%. Over 60% of registered candidates were disqualified for failing to meet the myriad of opaque eligibility requirements, including 3,000 (99%) of registered reformist candidates.
Fifty sitting MPs from the largest parliamentary faction loyal to the current speaker of the parliament, Ali Larijani, were also disqualified. Larijani is a conservative who has been relatively supportive of Rouhani.
Rouhani is encouraging voters to turn out in large numbers
Rouhani and his allies have criticised the high percentages of disqualifications, accusing the Guardian Council of predetermining the outcome of the election. Nevertheless, Rouhani is lobbying hard and has called for high participation rates to boost the chances of moderates against those of hardliners.
Post-election agenda
The election of a more moderate parliament could end a pattern of parliamentary obstruction over the president's policies. Hardliners have dominated the parliament since 2004 and have been vehemently opposed to much of Rouhani's liberalisation agenda (see IRAN: Conservatives will stall domestic reforms - October 7, 2015).
Rouhani still has an ambitious domestic reform agenda to meet before the 2017 presidential elections. In particular, he is seeking reforms that will encourage foreign investment after the lifting of sanctions, and which will be pivotal to improving the economy's health.
Electoral alliances
Political parties are banned in Iran so candidates have loose political currents that resemble alliances of convenience to pursue common political-ideological agendas, economic interests and constituencies.
Reformists, centrists and moderates who support Rouhani have agreed to release a joint list of candidates known as the 'Alliance of Reformists and Government Supporters' in order to challenge hardliners and conservatives more effectively.
By contrast, the conservative camp remains split by long-running personal divisions and rivalries. Hardliners were also unable to unify before the 2013 presidential election, creating an opening for Rouhani's victory.
Reformists and centrists have united, while the conservatives are divided
However, the large number of disqualifications means that the opportunity for moderate and centrist gains in this election will be limited by the vetting process.
Some 586 women are also included on the list of approved parliamentary candidates.
Parliamentary system
The parliament's 290 members are elected for a four-year term and represent 207 electoral districts. The largest district, Tehran, has 30 seats.
To win a seat, candidates need to obtain the majority of votes in a district, which must amount to at least 25% of votes cast there. A run-off between the two leading candidates is held if no one meets these criteria.
The parliament has responsibility for legislation and oversight, although its powers are constrained by the Guardian Council, which is able to veto legislation that does not conform to Islamic law. In effect, this has meant that major political and economic reforms approved by the parliament have been blocked by the Guardian Council.
Assembly of Experts
The selection of the 88-member Assembly of Experts also comes at a crucial time, as Khamenei is 76 and ailing. Tasked with electing the supreme leader, this body could be responsible for picking Khamenei's successor.
Out of the 800 people who registered for this election, the Guardian Council approved 161 candidates. None of the 16 women who ran for the election were approved.
Hojjatol Eslam Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, was among those disqualified. The Guardian Council's reasoning was that Khomeini had not reached an adequate level of religious learning to be able to assess the qualifications of the next supreme leader.
A number of prominent ayatollahs were excluded due to their moderate affiliations, and in a number of provinces only one candidate was approved, thereby predetermining the outcome of the election.
Candidates confirmed for Tehran province include President Hassan Rouhani; the centrist Expediency Council chairman, Ali Akbar Rafsanjani; and the hardline Guardian Council secretary, Ahmad Jannati.
Investment implications
The shape of the new parliament in particular will be key to the Rouhani government's bid to attract foreign investment to Iran following the January 16 announcement of Iran's compliance with the nuclear agreement, which led to the lifting of all EU sanctions and key US sanctions.
Iran has been actively courting European and Asian investors, and has signed significant deals with Italy, France and China, including a 25-billion-dollar purchase of 118 aircraft from France's Airbus and a new strategic agreement with China designed to upgrade strategic relations and trade (see IRAN: Foreign investment recovery may disappoint - February 1, 2016).
Efforts to increase foreign investment in Iran's oil sector face domestic political sensitivities
The first post-sanctions shipment of Iranian crude departed for Europe on February 15. A tanker chartered by French energy majorTotal SA is carrying 2 million barrels, while two others will carry 1 million barrels each for Spain's Compania Espaiola de Petroleos (Cepsa), and Litasco, the trading arm of Russia's Lukoil.
New oil contract model
One of the first major investment-related decisions that the new parliament will have to make is on Iran's new petroleum contract model.
Iran has ambitions to raise crude oil production to 4 million barrels a day and needs 200 million dollars in investment and foreign expertise to meet that goal. The new contract model aims to support this goal by allowing foreign firms to reap greater profit based on price flexibility, investment risks and opportunities in both the upstream and downstream sectors.
Yet significant ambiguity over the terms of the new contract model remains. Iran had been scheduled to unveil the model at a conference in London at the end of this month, but the event was postponed because domestic hardliners opposed the more generous contract conditions (see IRAN: Oil sector faces slow recovery from sanctions - April 7, 2015).
The final terms will not be announced until after the parliamentary elections are concluded leaving greater uncertainty for Iran's future economic growth ambitions.
_350.jpg "President Hassan Rouhani registers for the Assembly of Experts' election in Tehran (Reuters/Raheb Homavandi)")