Elections return Iranian politics to centre ground

Analysis

The highly contested parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections have resulted in decisive gains in Tehran and surrounding urban centres for reformist and pragmatist candidates at the expense of hardline conservative factions.

Turnout was 62% in the first national elections since Rouhani's 2013 victory.

All levels of government encouraged high voter participation. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei sought greater public legitimacy for the Islamic revolutionary system while Rouhani sought public support for the nuclear deal and his ambitious economic reform agenda.

Parliamentary elections

The results in the capital provide a strong indication of the balance of power in the next parliament.

Reformist-aligned candidates have won all of Tehran province's 30 seats. With the largest number of seats, the capital is the most important electoral district in Iran's 290-seat parliament (majlis).

The 'List of Hope', led by the reformist candidate and former vice president, Mohammad Aref, dominated the results. Aref scored the highest number of votes in Tehran, followed by a conservative incumbent Ali Motahari, who was standing on the same list. Other reformist-aligned winners in Tehran include Alireza Mahjoub, Soheila Jelodarzadeh and Elias Hazrati.

Leading conservatives suffered surprise defeats in Tehran and beyond. The top figure on the conservative list, Gholam Hossein Hadad Adel, a close ally and relative of Khamenei, lost in Tehran. Hadad Adel had been planning to challenge incumbent Speaker Ali Larijani for the speakership.

A leading conservative figure and ally and supporter of Rouhani, Larijani ran as an independent, rather than affiliating himself with a particular list. He came second in his province of Qom, behind a hardline conservative, suggesting that his speakership position is not guaranteed.

Early results also indicate that 20 female candidates have been elected, a record number since the Islamic revolution in 1979. These include a 30-year-old reformist who has stated that women should be able to chose if they want to observe Islamic dress.

Balance of power

Exit polls from rural and provincial areas outside Tehran imply that conservatives have performed much better nationwide. This means that the final make-up of parliament will likely be more balanced, with a large conservative faction represented (see IRAN: Conservatives set to retain hold on parliament - February 18, 2016).

On February 29 the Interior Ministry confirmed the following results, based on electoral list, for the 290-member parliament:

• Moderate or 'pragmatic' conservatives (who may support Rouhani) are set to control 73 seats.
• Hardline conservatives have taken 68 seats, down from 112 in the previous parliament.
• Reformist candidates have won at least 85 seats; many of the candidates are new to parliament and are relatively unknown on the political scene.
• Some 59 seats have no majority winner and will be decided at a run-off election in April, while five seats are dedicated to Iran's religious minorities.

Although candidates run on the same list, they do not share a common ideology or uniform opinions, and often come from different political camps.

For example, Motahari joined the reformist list but has conservative leanings on many social and cultural issues. However, in contrast to hardline conservatives, Motahari has criticised the house arrest of former 2009 Green movement candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

There is room for individual MPs to join different groupings and alliances once in parliament. Many of the newly elected independent MPs are expected to work with rather than against Rouhani's government.

Factional alliances to prevail

The divide suggests that no one group will have control in the new parliament. The president will, therefore, have to navigate these various factional alliances and build coalitions of support among reformists and independents for his economic and social reform programmes.

Parliamentary support for Iran's new petroleum contracts is an essential part of Rouhani's economic programme to encourage foreign investment in Iran's energy sector (see IRAN: Foreign investment recovery may disappoint - February 1, 2016).

A more balanced parliament could make it easier for Rouhani to push through gradual reform. His administration has faced significant scrutiny and disruptive action from the current parliament, with hardline conservatives using their influence to summon ministers to parliament on spurious grounds and to threaten to impeach them (see IRAN: Conservatives will stall domestic reforms - October 7, 2015).

However, factional tensions are still sure to emerge. Rouhani will need to tread cautiously to avoid antagonising hardliners and Khamenei.

Assembly of Experts

The final national results of the Assembly of Experts election confirmed on February 29 reveal a conservative-dominated council with some reformist gains.

A former president and longtime regime insider, Hashemi Rafsanjani, secured the greatest number of votes in the election for Tehran's 16 seats in the 88-member assembly, with Rouhani coming third.

By contrast, hardline conservatives, including Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi (the current chairman), and Ayatollah Mohammad Mesbah-Yazdi (a long-time supporter of former President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad), failed to garner enough votes. Another hardliner, Guardian Council chairman Ahmad Jannati, was 15th in the Tehran ballot.

These results suggest a popular backlash against hardline candidates who have long opposed the nuclear deal.

Rafsanjani's victory marks a political comeback after his failure to win recent parliamentary or Assembly of Experts elections. He is now in a good position for to be elected chairman of the assembly. Rafsanjani has ambitions to replace Khamenei upon his death or reform the post of the Supreme Leader into that of a council.

Outlook

The strong showing of reformist and pragmatic candidates in the elections is an important sign of the normalisation of Iranian politics and international relations following the divisive Ahmadi-Nejad years.

Signalling a more stable political outlook, the elections are likely to have significant benefits for business, foreign investors and the stock market, as more trust can be put in the country's stability.

Iran's parliament will also have a new alignment that could benefit Rouhani as he seeks re-election in 2017.

However, no radical changes can be expected in Iran's domestic politics or foreign policy, given the veto power that the Guardian Council still wields over parliament, and Rouhani's preference for securing conservative approval for gradual change.