Trump highlights pitfalls of election prediction
Trump's primary wins show the difference between prediction and analysis, offering lessons for the general election
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In this article
- Modelling Trump?
- Flawed assumptions
- Unanticipated event
- Lessons for predicting political events
- Insular environment
- Over-modelling
- Use of historical data
- Outlook
What is this?
This article is from the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief, which analyses geopolitical, economic, social, business and industrial developments on a global and regional basis, providing clients with timely, authoritative analysis every business day of the year. Find out more about the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief, or request a trial.
_350.jpg "Republican US Presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Phoenix, Arizona (Reuters/Nancy Wiechec)")