US foreign policy will go right after Tillerson

Analysis

Tillerson's dismissal had been anticipated since late November, but it still appeared to surprise him and his inner circle. State Department officials who he picked are also likely to depart quickly.

Trump and Tillerson disagreed on various foreign policy issues, including the Iran nuclear deal reached in 2015, the timing of a US-North Korea meeting (see US-NORTH KOREA: Leaders meet would have modest outcome - March 9, 2018), the US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and from the Paris Accords on climate change, and, finally, Trump's new steel and aluminium tariffs (see CANADA/US: Tariff troubles may still flare - March 13, 2018).

Moves rightwards

Tillerson's departure and Pompeo's nomination signal a move to the right in Trump's foreign policy. A member of the Tea Party movement when he was in Congress, Pompeo opposed the Iran Nuclear Agreement and the Obama administration's environmental and climate change policies. Pompeo advocates regime change in North Korea.

A similar shift occurred in Trump's trade policy with the March 6 departure of Gary Cohn, the White House chief economic advisor. Cohn opposed the imposition of the steel and aluminium tariffs. Now, trade hawks Peter Navarro, director of the White House Trade Council, and Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross have been elevated in the White House.

State Department capacity

State Department career officers hope that Tillerson's departure will reverse his policy of downsizing the department (see UNITED STATES: Diplomatic service will be degraded - February 14, 2018). They may be disappointed.

The attempt to reduce State Department funding by 30% in the administration's proposal for the Fiscal Year 2018 budget had strong support from the White House's Office of Management and Budget, and the Budget was in line with cuts to several other agencies.

Prospects for Pompeo

Pompeo may encounter tensions with Secretary of Defense James Mattis. Both men have military backgrounds, but Mattis will not hesitate to contradict Pompeo's hard-line views if he believes they run counter to US vital interests.

Tillerson and Mattis were known to have good personal chemistry; Mattis and Pompeo are not likely to be as easy a match.

Koreas policy

Given his CIA background, Pompeo's appointment and likely confirmation will benefit US policy on North Korea.

Both North and South Korea place a premium on intelligence chiefs in the policy process: earlier this month, the South Korean delegation to Pyongyang, which paved the way for the announcement of a meeting between Trump and North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong-un, included Seoul's spy chief. Washington has previously employed this leverage in dealing with Korean issues.

Iran nuclear deal

Trump's comments immediately following the dismissal strongly suggest it may clear the ground for a more aggressive approach to Iran, with Pompeo a notable 'hawk' on this issue.

The first notable opportunity would be on May 12 when Trump has signalled he may not renew waivers on US sanctions on Iran, which would put Washington in contravention of the multilateral agreement and greatly reduce its value to Tehran, as the return of 'secondary sanctions' could affect oil exports and investment from third countries.

Middle East policy

Moreover, Pompeo's public statements on terrorism and Islam (in which he sometimes appears to equate the two), his strong opposition to the Iran nuclear deal and his strong support of Israel will hamper his ability to deal with delicate policy issues in the Middle East, even if they, again, align him firmly with his president.

Russia ties?

The greatest irony of Tillerson's firing may lie in US relations with Russia. Tillerson's experience with Russia as Exxon's chief and his reputed strong relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin were an undeniable magnet for Trump in the original appointment.

Early on, however, policy differences between Trump and Tillerson over Russia became evident when Tillerson supported Russian sanctions. With Tillerson's departure, his knowledge of Russia has now been lost.

Tillerson's strong support on March 12 for UK Prime Minister Theresa May's statement that Russia was "highly likely" to have been behind the poisoning in Salisbury of a former Russian military intelligence officer and his daughter was likely the short-term catalyst for Trump's firing Tillerson.

This timing was not lost on Tillerson: in his farewell address to the State Department yesterday, he singled out the Russian government's "troubling behaviour and actions" as one of the greatest challenges for US policy.

Reshuffle going further?

Whatever the specifics of Tillerson's firing, it may be one piece in a larger cabinet reshuffle. Trump is believed to have Veterans Affairs Secretary David Shulkin next in his sights, with Secretary of Energy Rick Perry the leading candidate to replace him.

Trump has publicly pondered firing Attorney General Jeff Sessions for months, but, with the FBI investigation still in progress on suspected Russia interference in 2016 presidential election, that may be a more distant prospect.

There is also speculation that National Security Advisor H R McMaster could leave or be removed from his post. One possible replacement is John Bolton, a controversial former US ambassador to the UN under George W Bush (a 'recess appointment': the Senate did not consent but was out of session).

Bolton has recently met Trump in the Oval Office and often advocates hard-line policy positions, including recently a US first-strike on North Korea. Other cabinet changes are very likely: Trump has said on Twitter of the White House personnel "I still have some people that I want to change (always seeking perfection)".

White House Chief of Staff John Kelly could also leave his post relatively soon.

CIA relations trouble?

Although Trump touts Deputy CIA Director Haspel as the first female CIA director, he could clash with her if she is confirmed.

During his tenure at the CIA, Pompeo demonstrated a greater willingness to politicise or otherwise tailor intelligence to fit Trump's positions. As a longstanding intelligence professional, Haspel may attempt to cultivate a stronger image of political neutrality as CIA director.