May needs momentum for Brexit deal to pass
A third and possibly fourth Withdrawal Agreement vote could take place before March 29
The UK government yesterday won a motion to extend Article 50 by 412 votes to 202. This follows the defeat of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement (WA) for a second time on March 12. Despite parliamentary support, an extension poses risks to all parties and positions on Brexit. Prime Minister Theresa May will look for newfound momentum for the WA, which will encourage others to support the deal and get it over the line.
What next
A third WA vote will probably take place on March 19-20. If it loses, the government has promised indicative votes that will allow members of parliament (MPs) to put forward alternative Brexit plans for Parliament to vote on, which could reveal for the first time what sort of Brexit commands a parliamentary majority. On March 21-22, May will meet her European counterparts at an EU summit, at which an extension to Article 50 and its terms will be discussed. If the WA passes, she will seek a short extension; if it is defeated, a long extension will probably be requested. If the agreement loses by a small margin, the government will likely hold a fourth vote before March 29.
Subsidiary Impacts
- If MPs reject the WA and EU leaders demand national concessions in return for extending Article 50, a no-deal Brexit could happen.
- Businesses are running out of resources to prepare for worst-case scenarios; an extension to Article 50 could force some to close.
- Given a long extension, there may be more willingness in the next European Parliament to reopen the WA.
Analysis
On March 11, May obtained legal concessions from the EU on the contentious Irish 'backstop'. However, UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox advised that the legal risk of the United Kingdom being permanently tied to the backstop remained.
His assessment ensured that the next day, Parliament defeated the WA for a second time by a substantial margin. The choice now is supporting the WA or facing a long extension to Article 50, which will leave Brexit in unknown territory.
Extending Article 50
If the WA is defeated again, London would probably need to ask the EU for a longer extension, possibly for one year, as a short extension seems inadequate to achieve the substantive changes required to the agreement. The process for extending Article 50 is as follows:
- the WA is defeated;
- the UK government requests an extension from the EU-27, which should include the length and aims of the extension; and
- an extension is granted with unanimous support from EU heads of government, by March 29 (see EUROPE: EU will be anxious to strike a UK trade deal - March 12, 2019).
A lengthy extension would pose risks to all concerned actors.
Public trust
Polls show that the UK public would support a short 'technical' extension to Article 50, but the majority rejects the notion of a longer extension. A long extension increases the chances of a no-confidence vote in May and a general election. Both the Conservative and Labour parties would face an electoral backlash for failing to deliver Brexit (for different but overlapping reasons).
An extension could also be blamed on Parliament, which continuously rejected the deal, but failed to take control of the Brexit process. The impact of a lack of trust in mainstream politics could open the door for the newly created Brexit Party to make political inroads (see UNITED KINGDOM/EU: Brexit could see party break-up - November 16, 2018).
A long extension to Article 50 would erode public confidence in mainstream parties
Fears of worst-case scenario
A long extension to Article 50 increases the chances of a 'soft' Brexit (staying in the single market) or even no Brexit, but pro-Remain MPs also have reason to be fearful of an extension.
If the WA is defeated, the threat of mass resignations could force May to step down as prime minister and leader of the Conservative Party. Two of the frontrunners to replace May as party leader include the Brexiteers Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab.
Pro-Remain MPs will fear a Brexit government, which could decide to walk away from the WA unilaterally and leave the EU without a deal.
However, for pro-Brexiteers, Parliament has rejected a no-deal Brexit under any circumstances and indicative votes could show support for a 'soft' form of Brexit, such as 'Norway Plus' (staying in the single market), which the EU could use as the basis for future relationship negotiations.
In addition, Brexiteers within the Conservative Party will not want to go down in history as those who in effect stopped Brexit, by voting against the WA three times.
Path to Brexit
May will undoubtedly use the uncertainty facing all concerned under an extension to shift the balance in support for the WA. Now that the stakes are higher once again, with two weeks remaining until March 29, any momentum that the prime minister can get for the deal will likely encourage others to vote for it.
One of the reasons why the WA has been defeated so heavily is that MPs expected it to lose, so that they had a free vote on the issue. Knowing it was going to be defeated, opposition MPs were very unlikely to vote for it. This is particularly relevant for Labour MPs in Leave constituencies, who want Brexit to be delivered.
Opposition MPs will be more inclined to vote for the WA if they think it has a chance of winning
May needs to win over 75 Conservative Party MPs and ten Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) MPs (the DUP is propping up May's government) in order to create a framework of expectation that she can win support for the WA. Amendments to Cox's legal advice will be crucial to win over the DUP, which will be sufficient for many Conservatives to vote for the deal.
If the DUP continues to reject the deal, many Brexiteers could decide to abandon their loyalty to the DUP and vote for the government. A Conservative Home poll suggested that support among Conservative voters for the deal has doubled to 40%, and that was before Parliament voted for a potentially long extension to Article 50.
Many Conservative Brexiteers could abandon their loyalty to the DUP if the Northern Irish party continues to reject the WA
As a quid pro quo for supporting the WA, May could offer her resignation and allow the future EU-UK relationship to be negotiated by a different leadership.
In addition to getting support from her government and party, May may also need something more tangible to offer opposition parties.
Giving Parliament a greater role in the future relationship could attract members' support. May could decide to establish a cross-party cabinet sub-committee that would formally devise content and policy for the UK-EU future relationship negotiations.
It is unlikely that May will be prime minister beyond 2019, so she could be open to resigning, just so that it gets the WA over the line. The EU also closes for business in April for a few months, so a cross-party committee would have time to design a policy to negotiate with the EU.
Outlook
If May can get a majority of the 85 MPs to support her deal, some opposition MPs who are concerned with a long extension to Article 50 will probably support it. If she loses by a small margin, she will use a fourth vote to try to shift the balance.
