The EU will be anxious to strike a UK trade agreement
National interests will play a leading role in the EU-UK Brexit future relationship negotiation
Source: ONS; IMF
Outlook
UK MPs vote today on the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. If it is rejected, they will vote on a no-deal Brexit, and if that is rejected they will vote to extend Article 50. An extension would probably be acceptable to all EU countries, especially given the economic damage that a no-deal Brexit would cause.
Whichever the outcome of today’s vote, a future EU-UK free trade agreement is vital for the future relations between Brussels and London. If necessary, both sides could extend the 21-month Brexit implementation period to give more time to reach a trade agreement.
Impacts
- If Article 50 is extended, that extension could become the de facto 21-month implementation period.
- UK-EU free trade negotiations will expose divisions within the EU-27 as national interests become more prevalent.
- Negotiating a free trade agreement with the EU-27 will weaken the United Kingdom’s capacity to pursue such agreements with non-EU actors.
- Ireland will strengthen existing economic ties and create new ones, in Europe as well as around the world.
See also
- Brexit is already affecting exposed EU countries - Oct 21, 2019
- UK government is preparing for an early election - Jul 25, 2019
- Belgium likely to focus on green and tax policies - May 14, 2019
- Extension beyond May could shift Brexit dynamics - Apr 12, 2019
- Dutch elections will likely reduce government’s power - Mar 19, 2019
- Ireland will look to expand its international reach - Mar 18, 2019
- May needs momentum for Brexit deal to pass - Mar 15, 2019
- UK Brexit defeat opens door for long extension - Mar 13, 2019
- Second Brexit phase could see greater EU-27 splits - Jan 11, 2018
- More graphic analysis