UK government is preparing for an early election

Analysis

Johnson convincingly defeated Jeremy Hunt by 92,153 votes to 46,656 in the Conservative Party leadership contest. His main appeal is the perception that he can win an election and deliver Brexit by October 31 "do or die".

His rise to power is also to save the Conservative Party: its failure to deliver Brexit saw the party receive its worst-ever election result, finishing fifth in May's European Parliament elections, and gave rise to the Brexit Party, which was launched in April and came first in the same elections.

Brexit cabinet

Johnson has chosen a cabinet of loyal Brexiteers with the priority of delivering Brexit by October 31. The reshuffle is a substantial clear-out, with the vast majority of the previous cabinet's ministers being replaced. Those replaced can be divided into two groups: those who oppose no-deal and will try to block it, and those that supported Hunt's leadership candidacy.

The most significant changes are the appointments of Sajid Javid as chancellor, replacing Phillip Hammond, and Dominic Raab as foreign secretary, replacing Hunt.

Javid's main priority will be to safeguard the economy in the face of Brexit, and that includes preparing for a no-deal Brexit with an emergency budget and 100-billion-pound (125-billion-dollar) infrastructure plan to rebalance the economy. Johnson wants a chancellor who he believes can help rather than hinder Brexit (see IRAN/UK: New government may threaten London’s policy - July 23, 2019).

Raab's main priorities will be to de-escalate tensions with Iran following the seizure of a UK tanker in the Gulf on July 19, as well as strengthening relations with Trump following a diplomatic conflict which resulted in the United Kingdom's former ambassador to Washington, Kim Darroch, resigning.

In addition to ministerial appointments, Johnson has appointed Dominic Cummings as a senior Brexit adviser. Cummings was the mastermind of the official Vote Leave campaign in 2016 and created the "Take Back Control" slogan.

Cummings is a controversial appointment: Vote Leave was charged with breaking electoral law, and he was found in contempt of Parliament over an inquiry investigating fake news and foreign influence. His appointment, however, strongly suggests that the Johnson government will be robust and resolute in its Brexit strategy.

Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which has been propping up the Conservative government since 2017 and rejects the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement, has pledged its support for Johnson.

The government has a working majority of three members of Parliament (MPs); this will drop to two if the Conservatives lose the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election on August 1, as expected.

Brexit Strategy

The government's Brexit strategy will be two-fold.

Deal

Johnson wants to leave by October 31 with a renegotiated agreement with the EU. The points for renegotiation will likely include:

• a demand to remove the backstop and replace it with something else to ensure there is no hard border in Northern Ireland; and
• a wholesale rewrite of the non-binding Political Declaration which states that London and Brussels aspire to a Canada-style comprehensive free trade agreement by December 2021.

No-deal

However, underpinning the government's negotiation strategy this time will be the threat of leaving with no deal on October 31 if there are no concessions on the backstop, hoping that this will force the EU to compromise.

A no-deal Brexit is a serious concern for some of the United Kingdom's closest trading partners in the EU, such as Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany. Ireland would be worst hit after the United Kingdom: about 85% of Ireland's merchandise trade with EU countries goes through the United Kingdom, while it might have to install infrastructure along the Northern Ireland border to carry out checks (see EUROPE: EU will be anxious to strike a UK trade deal - March 12, 2019).

Given that the risk of no-deal is growing, there is a possibility that Dublin and Brussels will agree to offer a time limit to the backstop. While Johnson said he wants it completely removed, a time limit would likely be supported by the DUP and Parliament, giving Johnson an opportunity to deliver Brexit.

If Johnson's Brexit demands are perceived as too outlandish by the EU, the government appears likely to pursue no-deal. The only way to prevent this is a parliamentary no-confidence vote against the government, with some 30 'Remain' Conservative MPs willing to support the vote.

Election preparations

Johnson's first speech as prime minister yesterday had strong elements of election campaigning in it. In addition to vowing to leave the EU by October 31, Johnson outlined a range of pledges including adding more police, having fibre-active broadband throughout the country and greater environmental protection. He has also pledged to lower taxes and increase spending. Moreover, he has a team, with such strategists as Cummings, who know how to win votes.

If there is a compromise with the EU that enables the government to leave with a deal by October 31, the government will probably call an election for the first half of 2020 in order to seek a national mandate and strengthen its majority in Parliament. In this scenario, a tax-cutting budget in October as well as a series of populist initiatives will aim to win back voters from the Brexit Party.

Alternatively, an election in 2019 will be inevitable if the EU does not change its position and Parliament tables a no-confidence vote against Johnson to prevent no-deal. This would give Johnson an opportunity to blame the 'intransigence' of the EU and Parliament for blocking Brexit, pitching directly to 'the people' and Conservatives who voted for the Brexit Party.