Misinformation will undermine coronavirus responses

Analysis

Coronaviruses are a family of viruses found in animals and humans. Most strains found in humans cause mild respiratory tract infections. The strain responsible for the COVID-19 outbreak had not previously been seen in humans. It is likely that a 'wet market' in Wuhan, China, was responsible for the first cases of animal-to-human transmission.

This strain usually causes mild respiratory symptoms in humans but can lead to breathing difficulties and in some cases death. Current estimates are predominantly based on figures from China and suggest a fatality rate of between 2% and 3%. Efforts to produce a vaccine are underway, as are trials of treatments, but none are yet proven (see INTERNATIONAL: Science may shorten COVID-19 duration - February 28, 2020).

Human-to-human transmission is through respiratory droplets -- the most important advice relates to handwashing, respiratory hygiene, avoidance of touching one's face, food safety practices with animal products and following official guidance regarding when and how to seek medical advice. Due to the growing body of misinformation circulating about the virus, this advice is often not reaching the intended audience, or is being disregarded.

Misinformation

The COVID-19 outbreak has been associated with a wide and evolving range of misinformative content. In part, this is due to the different motivations of those who are creating and disseminating it; each form poses a distinct challenge.

China's outbreak response

The Chinese government is known to employ secrecy, censorship and propaganda, which has undermined the public's trust in the information that they provide. It is likely that Chinese officials made serious misjudgments in the early stages of the coronavirus outbreak and so made the situation worse (see CHINA: COVID-19 outbreak will weaken Xi - February 27, 2020).

However, allegations of a large-scale cover-up and deliberate misreporting of figures are unsubstantiated and directly contradict the WHO, which has praised the Chinese response. Nonetheless, suspicion opens the door to speculation that may be transferred onto the WHO, which could make some people less inclined to heed the organisation's advice. This could undermine efforts to limit the outbreak's spread.

Researchers from the University of East Anglia (United Kingdom) this month modeled the effect of misinformation on infectious disease and found that reducing harmful advice just by 10% reduced people's risky behaviour that propagates the disease, such as not isolating themselves if they have symptoms.

Conspiracy theories

Conspiracies constitute a considerable portion of the misinformation relating to COVID-19. A number centre around the virus as a bioweapon, while others have claimed that the Gates Foundation played a role in the outbreak. Although they may not directly cause harm, they are adding to a climate of distrust where the public is treating official sources with growing scepticism (see INTERNATIONAL: Conspiracy theories cost societies dear - December 19, 2019).

This misinformation is making it difficult for the voices of healthcare organisations to be heard, the consequences of which may only become apparent as the virus accelerates outside China.

Cures, treatments and preventative measures

Misinformation on treatments extends from high-dose Vitamin C, boiled garlic and sesame oil massages through to cocaine and the consumption of industrial-strength cleaning products. Some of these are extremely dangerous, while others pose a threat as they may lead people to rely solely on them for protection or prioritise them over evidence-based guidelines.

The sheer volume of these claims is proving a significant problem for organisations such as the WHO to overcome. As cases outside China increase, this could significantly affect the rates of transmission of the virus.

Misinformation traction

A fundamental characteristic of the misinformation seen during this outbreak has been its ability to change tack at speed. Videos, pictures, interviews and articles, are all being used to substantiate false claims.

Misinformation travels faster, deeper and more broadly through social media networks compared to accurate information. It has also been shown that individuals are more likely to believe false information after repeated exposure. In the face of overwhelming amounts of information, people rely on information that they are familiar with -- in this context, misinformation.

Furthermore, the current social and political climate has exacerbated the spread of misinformation (see FRANCE: Anti-Semitic violence rising - May 29, 2019). Globally, anti-establishment sentiment is rife, making 'big pharma' and the WHO attractive targets. The ongoing petition for Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus to resign as WHO Director General has over 400,000 signatories.

A number of groups promoting nationalism and anti-immigration views have sought to appropriate COVID-19 to promote their causes. Misinformative content is frequently contained within a xenophobic frame and, though it is commonly quoted that coronavirus misinformation fuels racist sentiment, the converse also appears to be true (see UNITED STATES: Trump sharpens race, migration rifts - July 26, 2019).

Social media

Social media platforms provide a rich ecosystem for COVID-19 misinformation which can often gain unchecked momentum within closed groups before reaching a wider audience. Social media firms are now working with the WHO to combat this. Strategies include using existing fact-checking structures, promoting accurate content and making inaccurate content harder to find. For example, Facebook is running ads directing users to local health authorities and Google promotes the WHO's or local authorities' websites when a search is performed using the virus's keywords.

Other organisations and healthcare professionals also populate social media with accurate information.

Mainstream media

A notable feature of the outbreak is how the misinformative content is being reported by mainstream outlets. This is giving misinformation new reach and credibility.

Recent examples include a map illustrating global air travel, which was broadcast by several popular news companies under the guise that it showed the travel patterns of Wuhan residents who had fled the city. In addition, multiple articles cited a forecast of sulphur dioxide emissions over China as evidence of mass cremation of coronavirus victims.

The fact that these organisations are unable to discern the truth serves to highlight the challenges facing a general public.

Wikipedia

Many use the Wikipedia site as a reliable source of factual content and several new pages have been created relating to the virus, with over 18 million unique views. The site's free-to-edit format makes it vulnerable to the insertion of misinformative content. Groups of editors have been working hard to combat misinformation and certain pages have been locked to public editing to reduce further the risk of its insertion.

Current practices are struggling to compete with the scale and complexity of the COVID-19 infodemic. It is probable that the flow of misinformation will only slow once the outbreak itself has been controlled.