Belarus leader tests EU's will to punish him
Minsk knew European leaders would be angry at what they are calling a state 'hijacking', but did it anyway
EU leaders yesterday agreed new sanctions targeting Belarusian individuals and companies and called for national carrier Belavia to be banned from European airspace. The measures are a response to the May 23 diversion of a Ryanair airliner to Minsk airport on the pretext of a bomb warning. When the plane landed, the Belarus authorities detained dissident journalist Raman Pratasevich and his partner Sofia Sapega. Pratasevich yesterday appeared in footage reminiscent of a 'proof of life' video -- in custody, bruised and admitting guilt.
What next
Aviation-specific and targeted sanctions are unlikely to have much practical impact, apart from refocusing EU attention on Belarus after months of waning interest. They could be extended more broadly, and governments hostile to Russia may leverage the incident to seek penalties for Moscow. If that happens, Russia will be forced to support Belarusian leader Lukashenka even more strongly.
Subsidiary Impacts
- Moscow will seek a careful balance between failing to support its ally and backing it so enthusiastically as to invite sanctions itself.
- EU divisions will increase over the extent of sanctions and how far relations with Belarus should be uncoupled from tensions with Moscow.
- The airline industry must decide whether this was a one-off incident or signals an era of more frequent abuses requiring new precautions.
Analysis
Two minutes before entering Lithuanian airspace en route from Athens to Vilnius, the Ryanair plane was instructed to divert to Minsk by Belarusian air traffic control (see BELARUS: Proven hijacking would make Minsk a pariah - May 24, 2021).
When there is a credible threat to an aircraft, it is standard practice to order it to land. Although the pilot can defy air traffic control's instructions in an emergency, there would have to be a good reason for taking such an extreme step. A MiG-29 fighter was scrambled to escort the airliner down; this is normal under such circumstances.
Citation of aviation rules allowed the authorities to avoid overt threats and provided some deniability, however minimal.
Belarusian officials say the bomb warning came to them from Hamas. The Palestinian group, currently entering a ceasefire with Israel, denies this.
Partial precedents
It is not unheard of for aircraft to be intercepted or forced to land.
In 1985, US fighters intercepted an Egyptian plane carrying four Palestinians involved in hijacking the Achille Lauro cruise ship. They forced the plane to land at a NATO base in Sicily, and the hijackers were arrested.
In 2013, the personal aircraft of then Bolivian President Evo Morales was forced to make an emergency landing in Vienna when it ran short of fuel while flying from Russia, because Italy, France, Spain and Portugal denied it access to their airspace. There were suspicions that wanted US whistleblower Edward Snowden was on board. Only after this was checked was the plane allowed to continue.
The Morales case was swiftly invoked by Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova as evidence of 'equivalent wrongdoing' by the West.
Minsk has misused the rules to seize passengers from the air
What is different about this latest incident is that it was carried out by a government already well on its way to pariah status and executed via deceptive abuse of the international rules designed to protect passengers and aircrew. This tactic allowed Belarus to divert a plane flying between EU capitals and seize two passengers, one (Pratasevich) with EU refugee status and the other (Sapaga) a Russian national studying in Lithuania.
Striking fear in opponents abroad
The Belarusian state, especially the KGB, its foreign and domestic intelligence organisation, has for years been monitoring and harassing activists and journalists abroad.
A recording that surfaced at the end of 2020 appears to show that former KGB chief Vadim Zaytsev and two of his officers discussed plans for assassinations abroad in 2012. The voice said to be Zaytsev's is heard saying that Lukashenka wants the killings done and has set aside funds for this. One of the names mentioned is that of journalist Pavel Sheremet, who was killed by a car bomb in Kyiv in 2016.
An act of air piracy must be understood in the context of an escalating campaign to silence individual dissidents and intimidate and deter others, especially abroad.
The campaign became increasingly aggressive during the months of protests following the August 2020 presidential election (see BELARUS: Lukashenka clings on despite Russian pressure - December 14, 2020). Lukashenka is particularly irked that opposition figures who have relocated to EU states travel around the bloc freely to state their case.
Pratasevich formerly worked for the Nexta online media outlet which provided reporting and video footage of the protests and police brutality. He was in Athens to report on a visit by opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya.
Easy sanctions
The immediate EU package of responses was predictable, especially given the anger expressed by top EU officials and some European leaders who demanded retaliation for what they said was a hijacking carried out by a state.
Targeted sanctions will be refined to specific individuals and companies, presumably expanding the list of 88 including Lukashenka sanctioned in late 2020. The EU and United Kingdom will suspend Belavia's access to their airports, advise their airlines to avoid Belarusian airspace, and back an investigation by the International Civil Aviation Organization.
Such measures are relatively easy to justify and impose. They will have some impact on Minsk, denying it overflight fees and income from Belavia, which made USD27mn in profits in 2019 but lost USD35mn last year.
Belarus is not party to the International Air Services Transit Agreement which protects the right to overfly other countries.
More difficult decisions
It is less clear what impact these penalties will have on Lukashenka's administration, which already considers itself beleaguered.
The government virtually closed Belarus's land borders in late 2020, citing COVID-19 fears. Most senior officials are already subject to EU travel bans or are discouraged from travelling by their own government.
More serious moves that have been mooted include a coordinated expulsion of known or suspected KGB officers operating under diplomatic cover, and Belarus's suspension from the EU's Eastern Partnership.
Such actions would risk straining EU cohesion. Individual countries can still impose unilateral actions, but Hungary, which has long called for greater dialogue with Minsk and a relaxation of sanctions, might try to block more stringent moves at EU level (see BALTICS/POLAND: Policy towards Belarus will not soften - May 17, 2021).
Lukashenka's calculus
There is no suggestion that this was a maverick initiative by elements of the Belarusian security forces. Lukashenka must therefore have been aware of it, and he must have anticipated the diplomatic uproar it would create.
He presumably expects that, after a period of outrage, he will get away with it, barring a few sanctions on Belarus's limited air fleet. He will have demonstrated his will, reach and malicious intentions to emigre opposition figures.
Lukashenka may want to force, not ask, Russia to back him
Some figures in Europe are demanding measures against Russia, arguing that Lukashenka would not have dared to make this move without President Vladimir Putin's approval. This is open to question.
Lukashenka may also have calculated that he could gain added leverage with the Kremlin. After the August elections, Putin demanded substantive political change (to avoid revolutionary change) as the price of continued lending. Lukashenka ignored the demand by hijacking the constitutional change process, but continued to ask for money (see BELARUS: President will minimise constitutional change - March 17, 2021).
Forcing Putin into an unequivocal choice -- to back Lukashenka against the West -- avoids or at least postpones the reckoning.
