Analysis

India is the third-largest emitter of GHGs, but its per capita CO2 emissions in 2018 were just 1.8 tonnes, compared with a global average of 4.5 tonnes.

Achieving net-zero emissions requires emissions to be reduced to levels where they are neutralised by actions such as carbon capture (using techniques that are still not fully proven) and creation of carbon sinks (for example through afforestation) (see INTERNATIONAL: The path to net zero by 2050 is narrow - July 28, 2021).

Delhi's approach

India rejects calls for it to commit to a target date for net-zero emissions and talks up the progress it has made towards realising its NDC, which was mandated by the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.

At a G20 ministerial meeting in Naples last month, Delhi reportedly insisted on a footnote being included in the final communique registering its disagreement with the expressed position on net-zero emissions.

India was one of 51 invitees to a ministerial meeting hosted soon after by COP26 President Alok Sharma, a UK politician, but it decided not to attend physically on the grounds that it had presented its views in Naples. It did not join the event virtually either, citing "technical issues".

Sharma visited India on August 16-18 to talk to ministers and leading figures from industry and civil society.

India argues that focusing on a net-zero emissions target would hinder its efforts to foster rapid GDP growth and graduate from lower-middle-income status. It would have to reject cheap energy sources such as coal and invest in high-cost energy infrastructure. Coal currently accounts for around 70% of India's power generation.

Separately, Delhi says there should be more emphasis on the significance of cumulative emissions rather than on current emission levels. It points out that developed countries have effectively absorbed a disproportionate share of the 'carbon budget'. It believes the onus should be on them to record net-negative GHG emissions.

According to a recent report linked to the sixth assessment of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global temperatures have risen roughly 1.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The Paris Agreement says warming should be contained at 1.5-2.0 degrees Celsius.

Besides its unconditional emissions-related target, India's NDC involves achieving, by 2030:

• an increase in the non-fossil fuel share of its installed power generation capacity to 40%, subject to developed countries agreeing to transfer technology and provide support for related investment; and
• creation of an additional carbon sink of 2.5-3.0 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (see INDIA: Meeting environmental goals will be a struggle - July 15, 2020).

India aims to have 175 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2022, rising to 450 gigawatts by 2030, and to make the Indian Railways a net-zero carbon emitter by 2030, through 100% electrification and promotion of renewable energy use in stations and official buildings.

When US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry visited India in April, Prime Minister Narendra Modi told him that the government is committed to honouring its pledges related to the Paris Agreement.

Fulfilling promises?

India is on track to deliver more than promised in its NDC with respect to emissions. Its per capita CO2 emissions will likely remain well below those of the United States and the EU, for example.

Delhi will champion transition to solar energy through its leadership of the International Solar Alliance.

Given fiscal constraints, it is unclear how far India can finance its efforts to reduce use of fossil fuels (see PROSPECTS H2 2021: India - June 22, 2021). Much of the government's talk in this respect could just be rhetoric.

Delhi will accuse developed countries of not fulfilling their pledges relating to climate finance as well as not shouldering their fair share of the burden regarding emissions reduction. These players had committed to mobilising jointly at least USD100bn per year by 2020 to support strategies in developing countries aimed at mitigating the climate crisis. Estimates suggest this target has not been realised; an OECD estimate for 2018 suggests the outlay was just under USD80bn.

Furthermore, India says estimates of realised climate finance include projects that should not figure in the computation and schemes that were supported with traditional development aid.

Under pressure from their publics and mindful of alarming projections offered by various working groups associated with the IPCC's sixth assessment, developed countries are seeking a breakthrough at COP26 in terms of climate action (see PROSPECTS 2021: Climate change - November 25, 2020). China and India have become the main targets of their 'climate diplomacy'.

G7 representatives such as Kerry and Sharma will redouble efforts -- most likely in vain -- to get Delhi to phase out use of fossil fuels and commit to a mid-century target for achieving net-zero emissions. They will promise to address India's concerns regarding technology transfer and climate finance from developed countries.

Palm oil

Delhi will attract criticism for its plans to increase domestic production of palm oil, given the potential environmental fallout.

India is the largest importer of vegetable oil. Between November 2019 and October 2020, it imported more than 13 million tonnes to meet demand of around 25 million tonnes. Some 55% was palm oil.

The reliance on edible oil imports absorbs a large amount of foreign exchange and contributes to inflation when international prices are rising, as is the case currently.

Earlier this month, Modi said India would invest more than INR110bn (USD1.5bn) in raising domestic oilseed production. He said there were growth opportunities for palm oil cultivation in the north-east and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

The proposed spending on the 'National Mission on Edible Oils-Oil Palm', which will involve subsidies and incentives, will be spread over five years.

Areas climatically suited to palm oil production are rich in biodiversity. They tend to be occupied by tropical forests. Environmental experts have therefore questioned the wisdom of the government's agenda, highlighting the threat of excessive deforestation and water shortages.

India's palm oil policy appears to privilege economic objectives over environmental sustainability. It suggests that the government's position on emissions, while emphasising fairness, is above all about its GDP goals.