KYRGYZSTAN: Risk of instability remains acute
Jan Kubis, secretary general of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, held consultations with the new leadership in Bishkek yesterday. The opposition appears to have navigated reasonably successfully the difficulties of the first few days following the regime's collapse, but this is only the beginning.
Our judgement
There remains a considerable risk of political instability leading to widespread violence. Given the fragile nature of the Kyrgyz state, this could easily lead to a serious breakdown along regional and ethnic fault lines.